Bengals vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay Pick Featuring Joe Mixon, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram

Doing research can challenge your preconceived ideas, and these same game parlay picks with Joe Mixon, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram do just that!

NFL betting can be funny. We are three months into the season, and usually, the same game parlay picks are variations of my first impression. Usually.

That’s not the case this week, and I’m hoping the research is smarter than my eye when it comes to cashing this Bengals vs. Jaguars same game parlay that sits north of +500.

Bengals vs. Jaguars Betting Lines

  • Spread
    Jaguars -10
  • Moneyline
    Bengals +390, Jaguars -520
  • Total

Bengals vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay Pick

We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.

Trivia Question: Trevor Lawrence and Ja’Marr Chase were two of the top five picks in the 2021 draft. Which number is higher at this point in their careers: Chase total TDs or Lawrence INTs?

Research is a wonderful tool. Every week, when putting these same game parlay picks together, I enter with preconceived ideas as to where the path may lead. Sometimes, my initial instinct is the thread I end up pulling; other times, a new angle emerges, and I chase it in an effort to find value.

MORE: Early NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Neither of those things happened when putting this together. My first impression of this game was dead wrong. By “wrong,” I mean that the numbers pointed in the opposite direction. It’s not uncommon for my research and my opinion to not align, but it’s rare that they are diametrically opposed. On this first leg, that’s exactly what happened.

Joe Mixon’s rushing prop was listed at 49.5 yards, and it was juiced to the under, indicating that the sportsbooks had a similar opinion as I did — under. In my head, it made all the sense in the world: A veteran running back who is struggling with efficiency and has been held under this number in three of four games.

Oh, and we are talking about a game script issue along with a backup quarterback who showed very little in terms of leading a productive offense. Way under, right?

I was well on my way, noting that the Jags allow the third lowest percentage of yards gained against them to come on the ground (25.5%). Even better!

But as it turns out, Mixon’s role statistically trumps all of my opinions. He has accounted for 74.5% of Cincy’s rushing yards this season, and with the help of some basic math, that can help us formulate some projections for all levels of production for this offense under Jake Browning.

  • NFL Average Offense: 332.5 total yards
    • Implies 84.8 rush yards vs. JAX and 63.2 rush yards for Mixon
  • Below Average Offense: 298 total yards
    • Implies 76 rush yards vs. JAX and 56.6 rush yards for Mixon
  • Bottom 10 Offense: 282.9 total yards
    • Implies 72.1 rush yards vs. JAX and 53.7 rush yards for Mixon
  • Bottom 5 Offense: 270.6 total yards
    • Implies 69 rush yards vs. JAX and 51.4 rush yards for Mixon

All over our 49.5 number. I was still skeptical. “Let me dive into how these backup QBs do in their second start,” I thought — that should help me lower my projection.

MORE: NFL Against the Spread Standings

Wrong again. Of the backup QBs to make consecutive starts this season, their offense has seen a 9.4% improvement in total yards gained in their second start.

Take it a step further and remove the two instances in which that backup carried draft capital and was likely to be given a chance at some point anyway (Will Levis and Aidan O’Connell), and that second start spike jumps to 20%. It’s obviously not a huge sample size, but the logic makes some sense — the second start is better than the first.

Since October, pass catchers that you considered for your fantasy lineups have had some success against the Bengals. Here’s a look at the yardage totals for those players:

  • Week 4 (TEN): Hopkins (63 receiving yards)
  • Week 5 (ARI): Brown (61)
  • Week 6 (SEA): Lockett (94), Metcalf (69)
  • Week 8 (SF): Kittle (149), Aiyuk (109)
  • Week 9 (BUF): Diggs (86), Kincaid (81)
  • Week 10 (HOU): Brown (172), Schultz (71), Dell (56)
  • Week 11 (BAL): Beckham (116), Flowers (43)
  • Week 12 (PIT): Freiermuth (120), Pickens (58), Johnson (50)

Excluded from this sample are Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Gabe Davis. Like JSN as much as you’d like now, but he wasn’t on your starting roster radar back in Week 6 (only two teams on a bye). Davis offers fantasy intrigue, but he’s not the type you lock into your lineup. So that’s the sample we have.

Overall, we are looking at 16 players averaging 87.4 receiving yards per game when facing the Bengals. In total, 14 of those 16 players cleared 55 receiving yards, with a player producing north of 85 yards in five straight games.

With Travis Etienne battling a chest injury and Trevor Lawrence playing his best ball of the year, who is to say that the Jaguars ruin this trend?

When taking position into account, Calvin Ridley (89.4 yards per game when Zay Jones is active) and Evan Engram (third at the position in catches, targets, and target share) are the two highest in our PFN Consensus Rankings of the Jacksonville pass catchers and the two I’m banking on extending that streak!

  • Trivia Answer: Trevor Lawrence has thrown 32 interceptions in 45 career games, while Ja’Marr Chase has 28 touchdowns in his 40 career games.
  • Same Game Parlay Pick (FanDuel): Joe Mixon over 49.5 rushing yards, Calvin Ridley over 56.5 receiving yards, Evan Engram over 41.5 receiving yards
  • Odds: +518

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