This NFC North battle might not be the most aesthetically pleasing, but if you can tell the right story, your same game parlay picks can cash a +550 ticket and position you well for the week ahead!
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
Bears +136, Vikings -162
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: What has happened more recently — Kirk Cousins running for a touchdown or Justin Fields winning consecutive starts?
The Chicago Bears rank among the most predictable teams when it comes to projecting both how they move the ball and how opponents plan on doing that against them — now it’s time to pull the right levers to pay off this ticket!
In Justin Fields’ past four fully healthy games, DJ Moore has earned 34.3% of the targets, a rate that ranks among the elite. The opportunity count appears to be safe, and in all four games this season in which Moore has caught 5+ passes, he has cleared 95 receiving yards. If Moore is going to produce in a strong YAC spot against the blitz-heaviest defense, something has to give.
This season, in games Fields both started and finished, Mooney has accounted for just 8.2% of completions. He’s never been a high-volume receiver, but that’s a concerningly low rate in an offense that projects for 17 completions.
For those not mathematically inclined, an 8.2% catch share on 17 completions suggests that 1.4 receptions is the outcome we’d expect.
On the flip side, you’re late to the party if you’re not acknowledging the Bears’ league-best run defense (3.4 yards per carry allowed). The Minnesota Vikings own the sixth-lowest yards-per-carry average as an offense, making them a viable run game to fade in any spot, but especially a tough matchup.
Last week, Alexander Mattison’s snap count was more than double that of Ty Chandler (48-23), and yet his rushing prop is only 35.8% higher than that of Chandler in this spot.
If Mattison is the clear lead back, this game script puts Chandler in a tough spot (somewhat similar to the Black Friday SGP that cashed) from a game script point of view. Either the Vikings are playing with a lead and running with their top back to ice the game, or they are trailing and trusting Joshua Dobbs to pick up yards on dropbacks.
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) November 24, 2023
Personally, I think the former is more likely, but either of those scripts works for the story I’m telling! Remove a game against the historically bad Denver Broncos run defense, and Chandler is averaging a tick under 3.7 yards per carry thus far in his young career.
At that rate, he’ll need to hit double digits in carries — and that’s without building in any decline in efficiency based on this difficult matchup.
We are working with a four-legger tonight. That feels like it needs a lot to go your way, but they all follow a similar script — nail that, and we are going to have a chance!
- Trivia Answer: Kirk Cousins’ last rushing score came on October 30, 2021, while Justin Fields’ most recent second straight win came on October 10, 2021.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: DJ Moore over 4.5 receptions, DJ Moore over 59.5 receiving yards, Darnell Mooney under 2.5 receptions, Ty Chandler under 33.5 rushing yards
- Odds:+550 (at DraftKings)
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