Did the Atlanta Falcons’ Super Bowl Odds Get a Boost From the Kirk Cousins Signing?

Did the news of Kirk Cousins signing in Atlanta boost the Falcons' Super Bowl odds, and should you bet on them to win it all?

On the first day of the NFL legal tampering period, Kirk Cousins’ agent reported that the veteran quarterback would be signing with the Atlanta Falcons. Rumors had been swirling that Cousins could be heading to Atlanta, but there seemed as much noise around him remaining in Minnesota with the Vikings.

Let’s take a look at what Cousins signing in Atlanta means for the Falcons’ Super Bowl odds heading into 2024, and whether betting on them makes sense.

Atlanta Falcons’ Super Bowl Odds in 2024

Following the announcement of Cousins signing with the Falcons, their Super Bowl odds dropped across the board. At BetMGM, their odds dropped from +5000 to +3000. The drop at other sportsbooks was a little less extreme. DraftKings Sportsbook already appeared to have baked in the potential for this move, as the Falcons’ odds only dropped from +3500 to +2800.

As things stand on their first day of legal tampering, the Falcons are now the team in the NFC South with the lowest Super Bowl odds. Additionally, the Falcons are only behind five other NFC teams when it comes to their Super Bowl odds at DraftKings. Atlanta is as low as +1200 at DraftKings to win the NFC.

It is no real secret that the Falcons would be in the market for a quarterback this offseason. At the NFL Combine, Raheem Morris was quoted as saying that if the Falcons had a quarterback last year, he might not be the head coach of the team now. That was not a ringing endorsement of third-year QB Desmond Ridder, who started much of last season.

Finding the end zone was a major problem for the Falcons passing game last year. They had just 17 passing touchdowns all season, with a touchdown percentage of 3.2%. Both of those numbers were in the bottom 10 in the NFL in 2023. For reference, Cousins had 18 passing touchdowns and a 5.8% passing touchdown rate in just eight games last year.

The biggest concern for the Falcons will be that Cousins is coming off a major injury to his Achilles. From a timeframe perspective, he should be back for the start of the season, but there have to be concerns about durability and the potential impact on his play in the short term.

We do not have a huge depth of data for QBs coming off Achilles injuries and the impact on their performance. At 35 years of age when signing this contract, the Falcons are clearly not too concerned about the long-term impact, given they have committed $100 million in fully guaranteed money to their new quarterback.

KEEP READING: NFL Free Agency Tracker 2024

The Falcons have the infrastructure in place to potentially set Cousins up for success. He has Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson for weapons. The offensive line is good, and the defense should at least be league-average. Those are recipes for success with a quarterback who can make the right plays at the right time, while also avoiding costly mistakes.

I actually grabbed a small share of the Falcons when their odds were in the +4000 to +5000 region a couple of weeks ago. If you can get them at +3000 or +3500, I still like them as a small unit bet. I will never advocate tying up too much bankroll in a Super Bowl future in March when the payoff won’t be for a year, so keep any bets small.

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