The Atlanta Falcons will face the Denver Broncos in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Falcons skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Kirk Cousins, QB
Kirk Cousins was the highest-scoring fantasy QB in Week 5 but hasn’t given us top-15 numbers in a single game since. The lack of rushing equity certainly plays into that, but so does a limited yardage ceiling through the air.
We remember the 509-yard game against the Bucs, but did you know that Cousins has reached 245 passing yards just two other times this season?
The aggressive Broncos figure to make Cousins uncomfortable on his dropbacks and could result in Atlanta looking to leverage Bijan Robinson and the run game. At the end of the day, I think Cousins has a narrow range of outcomes, and I can’t get him inside of my top 15 this week without a top-five upside.
Bijan Robinson, RB
We are finally getting the usage we wanted from Bijan Robinson. He has at least 19 carries and three receptions in three of his past four games (that’s three more such games than he had all of last season).
It’s a beautiful thing.
The Falcons are in scoring position whenever Robinson touches the ball, and I have him as a part of the “matchup-proof” tier at the position. The Broncos are elite in most defensive metrics, and while I buy that, I buy this version of Robinson more.
Even with the stats in their corner, Denver has allowed over 110 rushing yards to opposing running backs four times this season. Tyler Allgeier failed to convert three goal-line carries last week, leaving the door wide open for Robinson to take over this backfield in a Christian McCaffrey-like way.
The Falcons close the 2024 fantasy season with the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders — get your team to that point, and he should be able to handle the heavy lifting.
Tyler Allgeier, RB
Thank you. Thank you, Tyler Allgeier.
Ever since Bijan Robinson was drafted, we’ve been begging for him to get a bellcow workload, and we may finally get there after Allgeier failed to convert not one, not two, but three straight dives from the one-yard line last week.
The cherry on top? Atlanta went to Robinson on fourth down to finish the job, and he used his athleticism to convert. So, thank you, Allgeier, for finally (hopefully) playing yourself out of an annoying role that wasn’t involved enough to play with confidence but was prohibiting Robinson from accessing his ceiling.
Allgeier hasn’t played 37% of Falcons snaps in four straight games, ending his run as a reasonable Flex play. He’s now in the Jordan Mason/Braelon Allen tier of running back, an encouraging player who is one step away from an RB2 ranking but needs not be considered as long as his RB1 is active.
Darnell Mooney, WR
I didn’t think Darnell Mooney joining the Falcons was an impactful move this summer, and I could not have been more wrong. He’s been nothing short of great for Atlanta and fantasy managers alike, something that appears here to stay for the rest of the fantasy season.
Last week, he was targeted on five of Kirk Cousins’ first eight passes, a run that included a 33-yard grab that landed this offense on the one-yard line where he was trusted to battle through single coverage. That’s not the Mooney we knew coming into 2024, but it’s the version we’ve seen for the past 10 weeks and have come to love.
He’s cleared 105 air yards in five of his past seven games and has finished as a WR2 or better in three straight, a roll I like to continue in this spot. The Broncos are as aggressive as anyone on the defensive end (first in blitz rate and fourth in pressure rate), and that should put a smile on your face.
Drake London when Kirk Cousins is pressured:
- 23 targets
- 13 catches
- 159 yards
- Zero TDs
Mooney when Cousins is pressured:
- 21 targets
- 11 catches
- 268 yards
- Four TDs
Mooney ranks in the same tier as players who entered 2024 with far more name value than him (Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, and Amari Cooper), and he more than deserves the high praise.
Drake London, WR
Drake London has developed into one of the more consistent receivers in our game (four straight top-15 finishes) after an underwhelming start (zero such games previously), and nothing in his profile suggests that the good times are going to end any time soon.
Kirk Cousins has fired an end-zone target in the direction of his unquestioned WR1 in five straight games, giving London plenty of scoring equity. The upside boost is worth very little if it doesn’t come with a reasonable floor, something that we are also getting from the 2024 version of this Falcons offense.
London is operating out of the slot on the majority of his routes, and given how productive he is from that spot on the field (2.1 fantasy points per slot target and 3.5 yards per slot route), I have no reservations about ranking him as a top-15 option.
Will the looming shadow of Pat Surtain II limit his upside? It’s possible, but I’m willing to bet on the creativity and versatility of this offense; if this matchup results in suppressed ownership in the DFS streets, I’m going to be overweight in a major way when it comes to the percentage of lineups with London driving the ship.
Ray-Ray McCloud III, WR
This Atlanta Falcons offense has proven productive, but asking it to sustain four pass catchers alongside Bijan Robinson is a bit much. Ray-Ray McCloud is on the field as often as anyone (98.6% snap share last week, a fourth straight game of growth), but what motivation does Kirk Cousins have to look his way?
The early-season volume has dried up as this Darnell Mooney season has been legitimized, resulting in McCloud seeing a target on no more than 12% of his routes in four straight games. That level of involvement simply isn’t enough to justify being rostered in anything but the deepest of deep leagues.
If you’re this far down in the rankings, Mack Hollins or Devaughn Vele are options I prefer, but again, we are talking sheer desperation mode.
Kyle Pitts, TE
The Falcons have made an interesting shift in Kyle Pitts’ usage, and I think fantasy managers should be happy about it. He’s played under 54% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in three straight games, but in three of his past four, he’s been targeted on at least 20% of his routes.
They are leaning into Pitts being a receiver, and that’s what we want. That’s how you end up with a highlight reel 23-yard catch on the sideline where Kirk Cousins is putting him in position to do what Pitts was put on this planet to do and high point the football.
If Drake London is going to find the sledding tough against Pat Surtain II, we could be looking at a nice volume game for Pitts. That lands him inside of my top 10 at the position. With this offense functioning at a high level, I’m happy to embrace the range of outcomes because it means I get access to a top-five ceiling.
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos Trends
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons are 6-4: they’ve lost every game in which they failed to score 22 points and won every game in which they reached that mark.
QB: Kirk Cousins has thrown zero touchdown passes and three interceptions on 36 fourth-quarter pass attempts over the past month.
Offense: Atlanta’s play-action rate has dropped from 16.7% last season to a league-low 8.7% this season.
Defense: Only the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Panthers allow points on more drives than the Falcons (46%).
Fantasy: We are finally getting the usage we wanted from Bijan Robinson – he has at least 19 carries and three receptions in three of his past four games (that’s three more such games than he had all of last season).
Betting: The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games with a total under 45 points.
Denver Broncos
Team: The Broncos are 5-5 this season, with four losses coming by a single score.
QB: In Weeks 1-4, Bo Nix completed just 42.9% of his passes when outside the pocket. That number has spiked to 65.1% since.
Offense: Denver ranks third in average time to throw this season (12.6% more than league average).
Defense: No defense records a sack at a higher rate when not blitzing than the Broncos (9.9% of dropbacks).
Fantasy: This backfield is in flux, but there is value in chasing it – the Broncos lead the league in average starting field position (their own 32.7-yard line).
Betting: Unders are 9-3 in the last 12 games in which the Broncos have hosted a game with a spread (in either direction) of less than a field goal.