As we move deeper into the second half of the 2024 NFL season, the postseason starts to come into view. Following the acquisition of Kirk Cousins, the Atlanta Falcons were the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South. After their loss in Week 11 to the Broncos, is that still the case?
Let’s examine the Falcons’ playoff odds and various scenarios.
Can the Falcons Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Atlanta Falcons are 6-5 and now have a 45.5% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.0% chance for the 1 seed, a 0.3% chance for the second seed, a 4.5% chance for the third seed, a 39.0% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 0.2% chance for the sixth seed, and a 1.4% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Falcons Win the NFC South?
Here’s what the NFC South race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Dallas Cowboys have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC East.
- The New York Giants have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have a 75.1% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Washington Commanders have a 24.9% chance to win the NFC East.
Current NFC South Standings
- Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)
- New Orleans Saints (4-7)
- Carolina Panthers (3-7)
Falcons’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Falcons win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Atlanta has a 0.0% chance to win it all.
Falcons’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: BYE
- Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 14: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 15: as Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
What PFN Predicted for the Falcons at Broncos Matchup
After a rough start, the Denver Broncos have turned their season around behind QB Bo Nix’s improved play. The rookie looked lost over the first month of the season, failing to throw a touchdown in each of his first three games. He’s since turned things around considerably.
Nix has multiple touchdown passes in four of his last six games. Courtland Sutton is playing the best football of his career. This looks like a team that should at least be in the playoff hunt until the end.
Bo Nix goes deep to Courtland Sutton for the 32-yard TD! @Broncos lead 14-3 👀
📺: #DENvsKC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/zCVxAlrDBs— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
One area the Broncos need to figure out, though, is their run game. Week 1 starter Javonte Williams has seemingly been completely cast aside in favor of rookie Audric Estimé, with Jaleel McLaughlin as the change-of-pace back. The Broncos need Estimé to be effective on the ground to ease the pressure on their rookie quarterback.
The biggest challenge for the Broncos this week will be whether their defense can hold up against a very good Falcons passing attack. Statistically, Denver has been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL this year, with a 0.08 defensive EPA per dropback, fourth-best in the league.
However, it’s largely been propped up by a weak schedule. When they faced guys like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, they didn’t really have an answer.
Is Kirk Cousins good enough to break the Broncos’ pass defense? We’ll certainly find out. He has no shortage of weapons at his disposal in Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts.
The Broncos have also been stout against the run, with the seventh-best defensive rush success rate in the league. Will they be able to contain Bijan Robinson, who has been on fire for the better part of the past two months? We’ll certainly find out in what has the potential to be one of the better games on the Week 11 slate.
PFN Prediction: Broncos 24, Falcons 21