Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for the Super Bowl Include Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Gainwell, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert

    Final game. Super Bowl 57. It all comes down to this. Here are NFL anytime TD scorer predictions for the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown.

    If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, then welcome to this rundown of our favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve analyzed the big game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.

    NFL Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for Super Bowl 57

    The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

    DeVonta Smith (+175) — FanDuel

    When a defense has surrendered the most receiving touchdowns during the regular season — including the second most WR touchdowns — we should take notice. While DeVonta Smith isn’t a high-probability scorer, his somewhat favorable odds combine with a superb matchup to produce an excellent betting opportunity.

    MORE: 2023 Super Bowl Prediction

    Smith is no slouch in the red zone. He’s No. 3 on the team with five scores inside the opposing 20-yard line, and he’s No. 2 in targets. In the NFC title game, the Eagles utilized their backfield near the end zone. But Jalen Hurts has thrown multiple TD passes in nine games. The Super Bowl is a prime opportunity to throw a couple more, giving Smith a great shot.

    Dallas Goedert (+190) — FanDuel

    I’m excluding most of the biggest names because of poor odds. Sure, it’s reasonable to bet on Travis Kelce scoring at -115. But at first and goal from the Eagles’ five, I would anticipate Philly swarming Kelce and forcing a slightly less reliable wideout to make the catch — or even taking a DPI and forcing the Chiefs to try again, rather than letting Kelce roam in the end zone on single coverage.

    Yes, anything can happen. And as always, we’re looking at probabilities. I’d rather bet on a superb TE like Dallas Goedert, paying nearly double, than someone like Kelce. Because the Chiefs have yielded only six rushing scores to RBs during the regular season.

    I believe KC will try to force Jalen Hurts to score through the air inside the red zone — and they have the defense to make that happen.

    Goedert isn’t a flashy scorer (only four TDs this season) but is one of the team’s top red-zone targets. He also has some of the surest hands in the game, owning the best catch rate (79.7%) of any TE with 40+ targets. In fact, it’s been four years since a TE has netted a higher catch rate on 60+ targets.

    Kenneth Gainwell (+400) — DraftKings

    One of my favorite young, non-starting RBs in the NFL. Kenneth Gainwell proved in college that he can handle a bell cow role, and this postseason, he’s shown the world (or at least, some segment of the world) that he can thrive in a larger role.

    Gainwell’s anytime-TD odds are all over the place. For example, BetMGM gives him a +200 line. This variance reinforces the confusion over Gainwell’s touch potential in the Super Bowl. I’m eyeing eight-plus touches and at least one TD opportunity. That’s good enough to wager on a favorable line.

    Patrick Mahomes (+600) — BetMGM

    As shared last month, I like to bet when markets are frightened, because fear tends to make bettors less rational, and that’s a good thing if we can remain objective.

    Betting on a Patrick Mahomes rushing TD in the Super Bowl is, objectively, realistic. I’ll make an unnecessarily blunt prediction: the first time the Chiefs get the ball at the Eagles’ 1-yard line, I believe Mahomes will be the one to push it across the goal line. He’s done it before. It’s his third Super Bowl appearance in four years. With momentum on the line — with the game on the line — the ball likely will remain in Mahomes’ hands.

    It’s not that Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon can’t get it done. But eight of Mahomes’ last 11 rushing scores these past four seasons have come from the 5-yard line or closer. McKinnon hasn’t rushed one in from inside the red zone since 2020.

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    And while Pacheco presumably will get at least one opportunity, he’s also coughed up the ball four times this season — losing two since mid-November.

    The opposing Eagles D is tied for fourth in turnovers forced. Is Pacheco a better option from up close than Mahomes would be? Maybe. Maybe not.

    But the best anytime-TD line for Pacheco is +180. While his odds of punching one in might be slightly better, they’re not +180 vs. +600 better.

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