The Pittsburgh Steelers entered this offseason determined to shake up the AFC landscape, making some of the boldest moves in the league. By betting on veteran talent and headline-grabbing signings, the team aims to transform itself into a true 2025 contender. Still, despite these investments, serious questions remain about whether Pittsburgh can keep pace with the conference’s top teams.
The biggest uncertainty lies with the unresolved contract situation of T.J. Watt, a former Defensive Player of the Year and the heart of the Steelers’ defense. With Watt’s status up in the air, analysts warn that the team’s playoff hopes could hinge on whether he’s on the field this fall.
Can the Steelers Compete Without T.J. Watt?
In recent seasons, the Steelers’ defense has consistently ranked among the league’s best, largely thanks to Watt’s elite play. Even as the offense has struggled to find its footing, Watt’s presence has helped keep Pittsburgh competitive and in the playoff hunt for the past two years. The unit also benefits from strong coaching, but there’s little doubt about who sets the tone on the field.
NFL analyst Mike Florio recently addressed the team’s outlook for the upcoming season, noting that Pittsburgh is currently favored in only six games. Florio warned that losing Watt would undermine all the progress made during the offseason.
“For everything they’ve done, game by game, the bettors aren’t believers. And that’s with the assumption that T.J. Watt is going to be there. You know, the odds didn’t change much when Aaron Rodgers joined the team because the expectation that Rodgers was joining the team was baked into the pre-existing odds,” Florio said.
The drama around Rodgers’ arrival was one of the biggest stories of the offseason. Even before the veteran quarterback officially signed, it was clear he would be the starter heading into the season. Every move the team made pointed to Rodgers as the centerpiece, making it obvious that Mason Rudolph was not in their long-term plans.
“I think all the odds we’ve seen out there and the betting lines we’ve seen out there for the Steelers now are premised on T.J. Watt being on the team. If he ends up not being on the team, oh boy. Look it up. I think it’s 1-11. I think that’s a record when he doesn’t play. It’s too late,” Florio added. Watt and the Steelers are currently at a standstill in contract negotiations. Watt is pushing for an extension that would make him one of the highest-paid players at his position, potentially exceeding Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett’s $40 million per year deal. However, the franchise has been cautious in negotiations, and the two sides remain far apart.
According to StatMuse, the Steelers are 1-10 in games without Watt, and as Florio pointed out, it’s now too late in the offseason to plan for a year without their best defender on the field. If the situation isn’t resolved soon, the team’s entire offseason strategy could fall apart, and Rodgers’ final season might once again end in disappointment.