Coming off the best season of his young career, there’s no longer any debate as to whether Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL. He’s one of the safety picks in fantasy football. However, that comes with a high price tag. Should fantasy managers be drafting the Detroit Lions WR this season?
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Fantasy Forecast
After three years, the stigma of being a fourth-round pick has finally been washed off of St. Brown. He’s no longer this Day 3 pick who outperformed expectations — he’s just an elite NFL wide receiver.
St. Brown has improved in each of his first three years in the league … and it wasn’t exactly gradual. After averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie, he jumped to 16.7 ppg as a sophomore and 20.7 ppg in his third season.
Initially, St. Brown was just a slot guy. He was an underneath receiver who relied heavily on volume to produce. The volume still plays a huge role, and his 47.3% slot rate was fifth in the league last season. However, he’s also seen his yards per reception increase each year he’s been in the NFL, going from 10.1 to 11.0 to 12.7.
Last year, St. Brown averaged 2.7 yards per route run, seventh in the league. He saw a 30.2% target share, second in the league. And despite his size and physical profile, the talented wideout was a red-zone weapon, scoring 10 touchdowns and commanding 25 red-zone targets, the third most in the NFL.
St. Brown caught 119 passes for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns. If I had to bet on whether we ever see a better season from him, I would bet on “no.” But that’s not necessarily a negative on his fantasy profile. Very few WRs reach 20 fantasy points per game. If St. Brown spends the rest of his relevant career in the 17-19 ppg range, no one is going to be upset about it.
There’s no longer a second-round discount on ARSB. He’s the overall WR5, going No. 7 overall. It will cost you a mid-first-round selection to acquire him, and it’s completely justified.
At this point, there’s no reason to question St. Brown’s talent. The only concern would be if the volume took a hit. But why would it? The Lions did just about nothing at wide receiver. Their second option in the passing game is Sam LaPorta, and there are plenty of Jared Goff targets to go around.
Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, and Donovan Peoples-Jones pose no threat to St. Brown’s alpha status. Another 30% target share is well within reach.
St. Brown provides an ideal combination of floor and ceiling. He scored 14+ fantasy points in 14 out of 16 games last season and had 10 games of 19+ fantasy points. He also threw in four games of 27+ fantasy points. That’s truly elite stuff.
St. Brown is my WR4, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking him ahead of Ja’Marr Chase. The only two wide receivers you can’t justify drafting ARSB ahead of are Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. Once those two, plus Christian McCaffrey, are gone, feel free to consider St. Brown in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insights on Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a productive fantasy football option since given the opportunity and doesn’t appear likely to slow down any time soon. The former fourth-round pick out of USC has given managers everything they could possibly want through his first three NFL seasons, and that makes him deserving of his first-round ADP.
What’s not to like?
St. Brown has seen his volume and yards per catch increase every season of his career, a rare combination and one that projects as sustainable given that the Lions are returning much of the same offense. Last year, that unit was top five in both passing yards and points per game.
When he first broke out, there were concerns about his ability to consistently win routes as defenses geared their attention in his direction. He’s more than eliminated those concerns, as he dominated for the entirety of 2023, capping it with a four-game stretch in which he caught at least six passes for 90 yards and a touchdown each week.
As if we needed more proof, St. Brown hauled in at least seven passes in all three of Detroit’s playoff games. Long story short, he has developed a connection with Jared Goff that is only getting stronger with time. Given the young skill players around him, this Detroit offense projects as a potent one for years to come.