The first round of fantasy football drafts is always full of talented players. This year, more than ever, your Round 1 decision will directly affect your draft strategy for the rest of your fantasy football draft.
One rankings debate within the first round is Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Bijan Robinson. St. Brown is the leader on the Detroit Lions offense and a points-per-reception (PPR) machine with an ADP of No. 8 overall. Robinson, meanwhile, is the Atlanta Falcons‘ Uber-talented second-year running back, who received an offensive facelift and sits with an ADP of fifth overall.
If you land a mid-round pick, you’ll be staring down this situation and wondering which player can elevate your roster and help you win your fantasy league. Let us help you break down the fantasy outlooks of both St. Brown and Robinson, so we can correctly identify who is the best option.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown was gifted with the fifth-most targets (164) in the NFL last season. He took those targets and turned in a stellar season for the Lions’ offense.
St. Brown recorded the second-most receptions (119), the third-most receiving yards (1,515), and produced the fourth-most receiving touchdowns with 10 total. He also provided a stellar PPR floor with touchdown upside, which is rare in fantasy football.
St. Brown was a yards-after-catch (YAC) machine. His YAC totals were the second most on TruMedia. His air yards per target were the 71st best in the NFL, which shows us that Jared Goff peppers St. Brown with targets and allows him to be a playmaker on the field.
That playmaker ability is something we desire in every round of our fantasy draft, but we yearn for it the most from our first pick.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Bijan Robinson
Speaking of playmakers, Robinson is one of the best in the league. When analyzing his 2023 performance, we must remember that he was in a bad offensive scheme with a terrible quarterback.
The inept offense held back Robinson’s ability to see light boxes, leading to a lower total of rushing yards. He could only produce 976 yards, the 15th-best in the NFL. Robinson also struggled to punch it in on his runs, as he only recorded four touchdowns, ranking him 28th overall in the run game.
Robinson’s receiving stats are tremendously positive for his fantasy outlook this season. He ran the second-most routes of any running back last season, turning them into 58 receptions, the sixth-highest for his position.
Robinson added 487 receiving yards to his totals to help elevate his fantasy production. He even added the third-most touchdowns through the air for running backs by finishing in the end zone four times.
With a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins and a greater offensive scheme replicating the Los Angeles Rams offense, we expect Robinson to become a machine for fantasy football on both the ground and in the air.
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
We wish we could draft both players, but in this debate, we’ll take St. Brown. The reason lies within our optimal draft strategy of chasing good players in good offenses.
We know what the Lions can bring us, while the Falcons’ offense is TBD. It can be great, average, or even a disaster, depending on the health of their quarterback and how they take to the new scheme.
We believe both players are good for fantasy. However, St. Brown provides floor plus upside that is more trustworthy in the 2024 season.
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