Neither Alexander Mattison nor Antonio Gibson were highly ranked fantasy football options following disappointing 2023 seasons. However, both have gotten off to better starts in 2024, with Mattison scoring in three out of four games and Gibson on pace for his highest rushing total since he was a full-time starter in 2021.
Pro Football Network’s Start/Sit Optimizer has this as a close call, with Mattison (5.9 projected PPR points) as the slightly superior option to Gibson (5.6) in Week 5. But looking long-term, is either running back worth adding on waivers this week?
Should You Add Alexander Mattison or Antonio Gibson in Week 5?
Mattison was an inefficient option during his final season in Minnesota in 2023 but has gotten off to a surprising start in Las Vegas. Mattison is averaging a career-high 5.1 yards per rush in 2024 and turned his five carries into 60 yards during Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns. Although he’s yet to eclipse five rush attempts in any game this season, Raiders coach Antonio Pierce hinted that could change soon.
Antonio Pierce on Alexander Mattison’s production through four games:
“He’s deserved more reps, and he’ll get them.”#Raiders
pic.twitter.com/3qJiRl9DRX— Levi Edwards (@theleviedwards) September 30, 2024
That could be a promising sign if Mattison receives volume while maintaining a reasonable share of the goal-line work. So far, Mattison has taken three carries from inside the 10-yard line, compared to two for Zamir White (though both of White’s carries came in their most recent game versus Cleveland).
The other reason to potentially buy into Mattison is a potentially improving offensive environment. From Weeks 1-3, the Raiders ranked last with 153 rush yards and 2.8 yards per rush. Las Vegas made a pair of offensive line changes in Week 4, inserting rookies DJ Glaze at right tackle and Jackson Powers-Johnson at left guard. The changes paid huge dividends, with the Raiders rushing for 152 yards on 5.2 yards per rush.
For Gibson, the offensive environment in New England doesn’t appear to be improving, though that hasn’t slowed him down. Gibson has received at least seven touches in every game this season. After posting 103 scrimmage yards in Week 2, he had 79 on Sunday, highlighted by a 50-yard catch in the fourth quarter.
Gibson TAKES OFF 🚀
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/RVj2i9y7Df
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 29, 2024
While big plays in garbage time are nothing to rely on, it’s worth monitoring the Patriots’ backfield distribution moving forward. Starter Rhamondre Stevenson may not be as entrenched as usual, as he’s fumbled in five straight games dating back to last season. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak by a Patriots player since at least 2000.
Bill Belichick may have already benched Stevenson by now, but it appears the ball security issues are taking a toll on his playing time regardless. After taking 75% of the offensive snaps in the first two weeks, Stevenson has played just 52% of the snaps in the last two games.
Some of that is game script-related, with New England trailing by massive margins against both the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. Still, it’s fair to assume that the Patriots will be facing a negative game script most weeks, potentially opening the door for more Gibson snaps.
At the moment, Mattison’s more consistent production and potential for a higher snap share make him the superior short-term waiver wire option to Gibson. However, the latter is worth monitoring in case Stevenson’s persistent fumbling creates a more even backfield in Foxboro, Mass.