The Green Bay Packers spent a second-round pick on AJ Dillon in 2020, but he has seen his yards per carry decline each season and will likely explore free agency this summer. With a 78.2% career catch rate and under 750 career touches, there will likely be suitors — where could he land, and what would the potential fantasy football spin be?
Potential Landing Spots for AJ Dillon
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were a top-eight team in terms of both rushing yards and yards per carry by running backs this season, thanks in large part to the creativity and quick scheming of offensive coordinator Todd Monken and the athletic gifts of Lamar Jackson.
Gus Edwards is a free agent, and while undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell certainly looked the part when given the opportunity (56 touches for 489 yards and a pair of scores), a torn ACL in the middle of December figures to put a cap on how much he will be used when he returns to action.
Enter Dillon, a plodding running back who has seen his yards per carry both before and after contact dip in every season of his NFL career. The thought on him entering the 2020 draft was that his stocky frame (6’0”, 247 pounds) would make him a viable goal-line option at the very least, with bell-cow back potential on the list of potential outcomes.
With four seasons of film on Dillon, it’s safe to assume that he isn’t the prospect the fantasy community had hoped for, but I’d be careful in outright dismissing him should he go to the Ravens.
With Jackson running the show, this offense is going to be in position to succeed, and that at least gives Dillon Flex appeal should he project to lead this backfield in opportunities.
With Green Bay, the bulky RB has scored on just 16.3% of his goal-to-go carries, an underwhelming rate (RB league average in 2023: 27.8%) given that we expected him to thrive in such situations, but Edwards was nothing special entering this season (23.1% conversion rate), and he managed to punch in 13 scores (46.2% conversion rate).
MORE: Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart
Running back, more than any other position, can be situation-dependent, and landing with a high-octane offense is the way we are able to embrace the discount that Dillon will likely come at in 2024 drafts.
Of course, he could flop, but in this spot, him being the 2024 version of 2023 Edwards or even 2023 David Montgomery is at least within the range of outcomes — hope that is unlikely to be reflected in his ADP given his struggles up to this point.
Philadelphia Eagles
A similar train of thought for the Ravens as a landing spot applies to the Eagles — a high-powered offense that is capable of putting Dillon in an advantageous spot. D’Andre Swift is a free agent this offseason, meaning that Philadelphia will be in the market for a compliment next to Jalen Hurts.
This is speculation on my part, but given the rash of QB injuries this season, could they target a thumper type of back to remove some of the contact that Hurts absorbs over the course of four months?
I don’t think it’s off the table, and with Eagle RBs pacing the league in yards per carry before first contact in 2023, Dillon would enter as much of a can’t-fail spot as we could hope for. If Swift leaves and Dillon is projected to be the lead back, why can’t he give us low-end RB2 numbers, even if they come in a somewhat inefficient manner?