The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a handful of games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Divisional Round to examine individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see what AJ Dillon’s value is for this weekend.
AJ Dillon’s DFS value vs. 49ers
Most NFL players look like Marvel characters when they’re in shorts in the middle of summer. Then, the right picture comes out, and the whole internet goes ablaze. Enter Dillon. The Quad Father has been all the talk since he lit up the pre-draft testing coming out of Boston College. This season, he became the running back many thought he could have been, all while pulling reps away from Aaron Jones — something very few RBs are good enough to do.
Playing in 17 games (two starts), Dillon rushed 187 times (48.7% share) for 803 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s more carries (171), yards (799), and touchdowns than Jones (4) had in 2021. Over the back half of the season, Dillon was the No. 1 option on the ground. In Week 10, Jones suffered a knee injury that has stuck him over the back half of the season. Since then, Dillon is No. 13 in the NFL in carries, averaging 13.8 per game, with 56 yards and 22.4 receiving yards on 2.6 targets.
He is the RB12 in PPR formats, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game. Jones averaged 13.5 per game over this stretch as he took a backseat on the ground. Dillon sees his most utilization in the red zone, seeing a team-high 39 carries, 11th in the NFL — tied with Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon.
At $5,100, Dillon is a great value in DFS, coming in as the No. 12 priced RB, even behind Ronald Jones, D’Onta Foreman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. At $1,700 less than Jones, Dillon is a great cost savings on DraftKings. The issue is the matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are a difficult matchup for Dillon
The 49ers are No. 7 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) as a unit but are No. 2 in run DVOA and EPA/rush (Expected Points Added per rush). They are also No. 1 over the last four weeks in fantasy points allowed to the position at just 13.73 per game. The 49ers have allowed only one RB to score 10+ since Week 13 (including the playoffs). Of the 68 rushes faced in the red zone this season, they are No. 5 in successful play rate per Sharp Football.
With that said, the 49ers come into the Divisional Round a bit banged up. Nick Bosa was forced out of last week’s game due to a concussion, and LB Fred Warner was removed in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury. It is expected both players will suit up but needs to be monitored. Despite it being the teeth of the defense, Green Bay will need to establish a run game. I would not be surprised if Dillon outscores Jones this week, and of the two, I prefer Dillon at his DFS price point.
AJ Dillon prop bets this weekend
Dillon’s prop bets are interesting, and your odds will differ depending on what book you use. On FanDuel, Dillon is currently set at 42.5 rushing yards (-114). But on DraftKings, you can get him at 40.5 at -110. On Points Bet, the over of 45.5 pays at +100.
Interestingly, there is no receiving yardage prop for Dillion. If I were to take a prop bet on Dillon, I would take the over, even at the 45.5.
My favorite prop bet on Dillon would be an anytime touchdown prop. He is +100 on DraftKings, +115 on FanDuel, and +125 on Points Bet to score. Even if Jones operates as the RB1, I love the utilization inside the red zone and his prepotency to always fall forward.
Green Bay at -5.5 is already one of my top plays of the weekend, and I am all in on Dillon at his anytime TD prop bet.