There’s no denying A.J. Brown’s immense talent. The question is whether that talent will ever translate into a truly elite WR1 season. Should fantasy football managers be willing to invest a first-round pick in the Philadelphia Eagles WR?
A.J. Brown’s Fantasy Forecast
Whether or not you draft Brown will ultimately come down to your underlying philosophy on fantasy football.
There’s no denying Brown is really good at football. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. By no means should we diminish his three seasons of 17-17.7 fantasy points per game. There’s certainly plenty to like about a fantasy asset that delivers that level of production.
The problem with Brown is the upside. He’s now 27 years old. While still firmly in his prime, we have five years of data on him and we’ve seen no evidence he’s capable of being more than what he’s been.
Last season, Brown posted 17.0 fantasy points per game on a 30.1% target share. As someone who rostered a lot of Brown last season and watched his games, it certainly didn’t feel like he was being targeted that frequently. Perhaps some of that can be attributed to Jalen Hurts’ regression. However, it doesn’t feel like Brown is treated like a true alpha who commands the ball.
From Weeks 3-9, Brown was that elite WR1 we wanted him to be, averaging 26.0 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, once Week 10 rolled along, that was not only it for Brown as a WR1 but for Brown even being startworthy.
From Week 10 through Week 17 (I’m excluding Week 18 because the Eagles pulled starters at halftime), Brown averaged just 12.3 fantasy points per game. He didn’t have a single game of 20+ fantasy points over that span.
If you want to draft Brown this season, he will cost you a late first-/early second-round pick. Brown has a WR7 ADP, going at No. 11 overall.
The threshold for WR1 production is roughly 16 fantasy points per game. Brown is very likely to reach that number. If your approach to the first couple of rounds of fantasy drafts is to play it safe, Brown is undoubtedly a safe selection. My problem with Brown is safety doesn’t win me fantasy championships.
Some may say the middle and later rounds are the times to swing for upside. I don’t disagree. However, if I’m taking a wide receiver in the first round or early second round, I want him to at least have the potential for 20 fantasy points per game. I firmly believe that is not in Brown’s range of outcomes.
Brown averaged 2.59 yards per route run, ninth in the league, and was targeted on 28.1% of his routes run. He caught 106 passes. Sure, he could do better than his seven touchdowns, but that’s the only improvement I can see — and touchdowns are largely random.
If Brown has an outlier season of 14+ touchdowns, then he can get to 20 points per game. But I don’t see a 100-catch, 1,700-yard season in his range of outcomes.
Meanwhile, guys like Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London, and Davante Adams do have 20 ppg upside. Of course, their floors are all significantly lower than Brown’s. It comes down to what you value.
Brown is still my WR6. And I’ve come around a bit on him being able to maintain high-WR1 status with Kellen Moore taking over as offensive coordinator. If drafts play out in a specific way and I pick at the back end, I would still take him.