The AFC is loaded with big-name quarterbacks who often grab the headlines, but there are several other intriguing players that bettors will be focused on. Our betting experts went team by team to identify the best bet for each of the 16 AFC teams this season.
Top Picks for All 16 AFC Teams
Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Derrick Henry to have over 925.5 rushing yards (-112 on FanDuel)
Am I taking crazy pills? In what world is Derrick Henry not getting to 1,000 yards unless he gets hurt this season?
Of course, injury plays a factor. At 30 years old, Henry’s risk of injury is greater than it was when he was younger. But he’s built differently.
Outside of breaking his foot midway through the 2021 season, Henry has never been injured. And that season, he almost got to 1,000 yards on the ground in just eight games.
Henry’s yards-per-carry average has dipped in the past couple of seasons. Some may say he’s declining, but I don’t really see that on the field. I see a guy playing on an offense without a quarterback or other weapons the opposing team has to respect.
On the Ravens, the threat of Lamar Jackson should help open things up for Henry. I can see him returning to 5.0 yards per carry. If he doesn’t get hurt, he wouldn’t even need 200 carries to go over 925.5 rushing yards. Even at 4.0 ypc, he could get there with about 230.
The only way I see this bet losing is injury.
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Buffalo Bills
Pick: Bills to score a TD in every game (+100 at DraftKings)
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Bills have failed to score a touchdown in just one game, but they’ve scored a touchdown in every game for the past two regular seasons.
Per TruMedia, Buffalo scored 63.1% of its red-zone opportunities last year (sixth) and had an 81.8% goal-line efficiency. Both of those numbers give me a high level of confidence that the Bills should be able to score a touchdown in every game.
If we go back to 2019, when Josh Allen became the full-time starter, Buffalo has scored in every game but three (Week 17, 2019; Week 7, 2020; and Week 9, 2021). Allen played minimal snaps in that 2019 Week 17 game, but two of the three have been against the Jets, so that will be the team to watch them against in terms of finding the end zone.
If you want to be a little braver, you can get the Bills to score a passing touchdown at +700. They’ve narrowly failed in this endeavor in each of the last two years but have only failed to score a passing touchdown in two of the 34 games they played across those two seasons.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Joe Burrow to lead the league in TD passes (+1100 at DraftKings)
There are 11 quarterbacks priced +1600 or better, and I think 10 of them are on a team with a realistic chance to see a player run for 10+ touchdowns.
Joe Burrow is the exception.
Dan Pitcher has been promoted to Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator after Brian Callahan left for Tennessee — not a major concern for me because he’s been in the Bengals’ QB room since 2016.
The Bengals have finished each of the past two seasons second in pass rate over expectation, a stretch that included Burrow leading the league in TD passes from Weeks 3-16 in 2022.
Jermaine Burton was drafted in Round 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft to replace Tyler Boyd and add more big-play upside (18.0 yards per catch during his collegiate career) in the process. Toss in the fact that this was the worst yards-per-play defense in the league last season, and the stage is set for Burrow to set a new high-water mark for his career.
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Cleveland Browns
Pick: Browns to win under 2.5 divisional games (+155 at DraftKings)
I think this is going to be an ultra-competitive division, but the schedule doesn’t do the Browns any favors. We know that games played on short rest ramp up the variance, and the two divisional games in which the point spread will give them the greatest chance to win (both Pittsburgh games) are on less-than-normal rest.
If Cleveland fails to sweep the Black and Gold, going over this total is an uphill battle. The two Bengals games don’t come in great spots (one after playing in five different cities over the course of five weeks; the other on the road in a three-day work week), and the Browns lost 12 of their past 17 against the Ravens.
With Deshaun Watson a wild card and Nick Chubb’s health a question coming into the season, this is a team in a division with a pair of MVP-candidate quarterbacks that needs to win with their defense. In certain matchups, the muck-it-up style can win, but in 2024, that’s a tough way to make a living against the elite signal-callers.
At the end of the day, I think it’s more likely that Cleveland loses at least three of its Baltimore/Cincinnati games than it is that it wins both Pittsburgh matchups.
– Soppe
Denver Broncos
Pick: Broncos to score under 330.5 total points (-115 on DraftKings)
After releasing Russell Wilson, drafting Bo Nix, and adding both Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in the offseason, the Denver Broncos’ offense is a big question mark. They also traded away their second-best pass catcher, Jerry Jeudy, so the offense may take a pretty big step back this season.
Last season, the Broncos scored 357 points, with their offense and defense ranking 22nd and 21st in terms of yards per attempt, respectively. However, when it came to passing touchdowns, Denver was eighth offensively with 28 — a number we expect to reduce considerably after the QB change.
While Wilson was by no means an elite quarterback last year, he did a good job scoring touchdowns relative to the rest of the Broncos’ offensive performance.
A reduction of 30 points is essentially just five fewer touchdowns in 2024, and that very much feels in play for what could be the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL.
– Rolfe
Houston Texans
Pick: Texans to win the AFC South (+105 on DraftKings)
Interestingly, I think the wrong team is the second favorite to win this. If not the Texans, my bet would be on the Colts.
Nevertheless, these odds don’t accurately reflect how good Houston is. C.J. Stroud is already a top-five quarterback. Perhaps there’s some expectation they take a step back after severely overperforming in his rookie season, but I think the opposite.
As great as Stroud was, he’s still getting better, and so is this team. I’m in the camp that Stefon Diggs is regressing, but he’s still capable of catching passes and being a reliable underneath option. He’ll make this team better, as will Joe Mixon.
Trevor Lawrence may be one of the most overrated players in the history of the NFL. The Jaguars are -155 to miss the playoffs for a reason. I bet that, too (albeit at -120), for what it’s worth.
I believe we’re about to embark on a decade-long stretch of the Texans dominating the division. We’ll look back on +105 at the end of the season and for years to come and wonder how the odds were ever so good.
– Katz
Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Anthony Richardson to score under 8.5 rushing TDs (-130 at Caesars)
If you’ve read some of my other stuff, you know I’m also on Anthony Richardson to win MVP as a long shot. I also like the Colts to go over 8.5 wins. How can all of these things make sense together? Well, betting is all about value and the odds.
As much as I believe in Richardson, asking him to get to nine rushing touchdowns is a lot. I view it as a bit of an overreaction to how frequently teams like the Bills and Philadelphia Eagles used their quarterbacks as goal-line options last season. That’s not the norm.
Richardson can definitely score 10+ times on the ground, but in his short career, he’s gotten hurt three separate times. You have to think the Colts will be as careful as they can with him.
Now, that doesn’t mean Richardson is never going to sneak it or have designed QB draws called for him inside the five. That will happen, but the first option near the goal line should be Jonathan Taylor.
Richardson can play a full season, perform incredibly, and still finish with fewer than 8.5 rushing touchdowns. And while I hope this isn’t what happens, the chance for an out for an injury is very strong. If Richardson gets hurt, then we just win.
– Katz
Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. to catch over 4.5 TD receptions (-120 at DraftKings)
This looks like a round-peg-into-a-round-hole fit with Calvin Ridley out of town and Lawrence increasingly interested in stretching the field.
Lawrence’s percentage of passing fantasy points on deep passes by season:
- 2021: 24.2%
- 2022: 27.5%
- 2023: 39.2% (fourth most among qualifiers)
Brian Thomas Jr. scored on 18.9% of his collegiate receptions and averaged 17.3 yards per catch in 2023. Christian Kirk (average depth of target down 19.8% in his two seasons with the Jags from his final two seasons with the Cardinals) and Evan Engram are more used in the short-passing games and, thus, not a threat to my angle that Thomas is going to thrive down the field from the jump.
Gabe Davis is a bit of a skill clone, but with NFL experience, defenses are more likely to shift his direction until BTJ proves himself worthy of the attention. Jacksonville ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation and has a quarterback viewed as the franchise guy. Volume isn’t a concern for me, and Thomas’ profile is that of an instant impact receiver.
– Soppe
Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Patrick Mahomes to throw over 9.5 interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes is as good as it gets as the position, but he does occasionally put the ball in harm’s way. Even with an aDOT that has declined or stayed level for five straight seasons, he’s thrown at least a dozen interceptions in three straight seasons.
It’s plenty reasonable to think that aDOT trends in the other direction this season, given the drafting of Xavier Worthy and the addition of Hollywood Brown (not to mention the legal hot water that YAC-man Rashee Rice is in). With that risk will come plenty of reward, but as you’d assume, those downfield throws come with much more risk.
Over the past five seasons, passes thrown 15+ yards downfield have been intercepted at a rate that is 260% greater than all other passes. The last thing Kansas City wants to do is take the school-yard plays out of Mahomes’ bag, and that’s good news for our ticket.
Also working in our favor is the fact that he’s started 50 of a possible 51 games over the past three regular seasons. The volume of attempts is a near lock, and over the course of 17 games, we’ve found the only market in which I’m willing to bet against Mahomes.
– Soppe
Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Davante Adams to lead the division in receiving yards (+240)
Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the NFL and a real threat to post a top-five target share, something he’s done in both seasons with the Raiders.
I’ll listen to the argument that an Antonio Pierce-led team could turn to a smash-mouth style, but with a lack of competition within the AFC West, I still love the spot for Adams and am betting him at +240 to lead the division in receiving yards.
Kansas City is the natural direction to lean, but I don’t think they pose a serious threat, assuming Rice is handed a multi-game suspension at some point. Travis Kelce’s reps have been managed during the regular season, a strategy the team has no reason to pivot off. Brown and Worthy will have their big weeks, but the wide range of outcomes on a game-by-game basis is a risk I’m not willing to take on when trying to catch up to Adams.
We don’t know who will lead the Chargers in targets this season, so that crosses off everyone in Los Angeles. As for Denver, you’re betting on a rookie QB getting Courtland Sutton in the Adams range — good luck with that. Sutton has one season in his career with 830+ receiving yards, and any total in that vicinity isn’t going to cut it.
A bet like this requires health, which is always scary. That said, Adams hasn’t missed a game since 2021, and with a centrally located bye week (Week 10), we have no real reason to fear his availability.
If Adams plays 17 games, I think he cashes this ticket easily; and at these odds, I’m willing to make that bet.
– Soppe
Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Joshua Palmer to have under 700.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
The Chargers’ passing offense is tricky to judge for several reasons. Firstly, you have an injury to Justin Herbert, which makes the start of the season a question mark in Los Angeles. Then you have Joshua Palmer’s own injury woes, which saw him limited to just 10 games in 2023.
The final element is the shape of Jim Harbaugh’s offensive system. When Harbaugh was the San Francisco 49ers’ head coach in his last NFL run, only one wide receiver eclipsed 700 receiving yards per season.
He also had Vernon Davis do it in three of the four years. The Chargers don’t have a tight end of Davis’ quality, but will those yards pass on to a receiver, or will they just be split among numerous tight ends?
Realistically, you would think that Palmer would have to play at least 14 games to hit 700 yards this season. That is certainly not a given after his health issues last year.
We also don’t know who could be the featured receiver in this system. It could easily be Ladd McConkey or DJ Chark Jr. (assuming he can stay healthy). There is enough here for me to be down on Palmer and this total.
– Rolfe
Miami Dolphins
Pick: De’Von Achane to score under 7.5 rushing TDs (-145 at DraftKings)
De’Von Achane was the toast of the town last season — he was cashing optimistic bets left and right while leading savvy fantasy managers to championships. That’s fine, but the wise will build more scoring regression than the books have posted.
Part of that is the nature of the public betting patterns (books attract a lot of “over” action, thus motivating the line to be an elevated one to entice “under” action to level their liability), but that’s not all.
Consider this: Achane ran for 10 fewer touchdowns than Raheem Mostert last season, yet the yardage accumulated in TD runs was 38 yards longer. Achane’s 195 yards gained on TD runs led the NFL and might be his least-stable stat from 2023. For reference, his average rushing score gained 24.4 yards, nearly triple the league average at the position (8.7).
With Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright in the mix, the volume concerns figure to remain. Achane isn’t the short-yardage back in Miami, and there have been reports of this offense trying to leverage its explosive backs more in the passing game — that’s not going to hurt us in this bet.
Tua Tagovailoa was the second-highest-rated passer when inside the opponent’s 40-yard line in 2023. As long as he remains proficient in those scoring spots, Achane won’t repeat his rushing success from last season, even if you pencil in an increase in his role.
– Soppe
New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots to win under 1.5 divisional games (+110 on DraftKings)
The Patriots are a bad football team, and that’s not a secret. I thought the public nature of their struggles would make it difficult to find a bet I was passionate about.
I was wrong.
- Week 3 at NYJ: 7.5-point underdog
- Week 5 vs. MIA: 4-point underdog
- Week 8 vs. NYJ: 3.5-point underdog
- Week 12 at MIA: 6.5-point underdog
- Week 16 at BUF: 7.5-point underdog
- Week 18 vs. BUF: 3.5-point underdog
Forget being favored; the opening lines had New England getting more than a field goal in all six divisional games. Over the past five seasons, teams that are an underdog by more than three points win outright just 28.1% of the time.
If we reduce that sample to only divisional games, the win rate drops to 24.9%. Entering the season, I’d say a winless season within the division (something two teams did last season) is more likely than them pulling off a pair of upsets.
– Soppe
New York Jets
Pick: Breece Hall to have 1,000+ rushing yards and 500+ receiving yards (+275 at DraftKings)
Coming back off a major knee injury last season, the New York Jets were somewhat conservative with Breece Hall. And still, he hit 994 rushing yards and 591 receiving yards. Add that it came with Zach Wilson and a band of mediocre quarterbacks under center, and the optimism should rise even higher.
Aaron Rodgers should open up the offense more this year. Hall should be in line for upwards of 225 carries, while a more effective passing game should give him lighter boxes to run into.
Hall essentially just needs to match what he did in 2023 with six more rushing yards, and this prop will hit. The beauty of this bet is that I think it is also somewhat Rodgers-independent. Most of the Jets’ bets are tied to their QB’s health, but Hall proved last year that he can get close to these milestones without a star under center.
– Rolfe
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers to win over 2.5 division games (+100 at DraftKings)
Do you remember the last time the Pittsburgh Steelers went under three wins in their own division? No? That’s good because, off the top of my head, neither did I, and that’s because it hasn’t happened since 2009.
Despite wading their way through mediocre QB play in recent years, the Steelers have remained competitive within the division. It’s one of Mike Tomlin’s special gifts.
There’s no doubt that Pittsburgh is a huge underdog in the AFC North in 2024. But the same was true in 2023, and the Steelers went 5-1 in the division. They just have this knack for beating their division rivals, including seven of their last eight against the Ravens, four of their last six against the Browns, and three of their last four against the Bengals.
All three other starting quarterbacks in their division have injury concerns, which also helps. I’ll take Tomlin keeping another streak alive against the odds.
– Rolfe
Tennessee Titans
Pick: Titans to be the last winless team (+800 at DraftKings)
I really don’t love any of the Titans’ props, so I decided to go big on this one. The Titans start with a pretty big gauntlet of the Bears, Jets, Packers, Dolphins, Colts, Bills, and Lions. That is legitimately seven games they could lose to open the season. Tennessee’s schedule softens at that point, but this bet may have already been cashed by then.
Of course, this bet relies on teams like the Patriots (+500) and Broncos (+1100) to win games, which is certainly not a given. New England also has a tough schedule to open up, and you could talk me into taking them and the Titans to be the last winless teams.
A potentially safer way to bet against Tennessee would be to look at its record after five games. I can see at most two wins and, more likely, one or zero wins in the first five. Therefore, you could take the Titans to win one of their first five at +160 and insure your zero-win bet at +500. That’s not a bad double for this team, either.
– Rolfe