The Indianapolis Colts keep drafting Day 2 WRs. Their most recent selection is Adonai Mitchell. What can we expect from the rookie this season?
Does his projection point to someone fantasy football managers might want to target in the later rounds of drafts?
Adonai Mitchell’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 9.2
- Receptions: 52
- Receiving Yards: 775
- Receiving TDs: 4.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Mitchell This Year?
On the one hand, Mitchell did earn second-round draft capital. That’s definitely a positive. On the other hand, there were still 10 wide receivers drafted before him. Historically, WRs taken outside the top 10, regardless of how early, do not have a strong hit rate.
Let’s start with Mitchell’s talent. There’s no denying he has upside.
Adonai Mitchell, Georgia ➡️ @TexasFootball
“His ability to embarrass defensive backs with route running and deceitful direction changes is up there with the very best.” 🚀
Full list: https://t.co/slmCApetWtpic.twitter.com/laJDC6I4T3
— College Football Network (@CFN365) February 1, 2023
Mitchell amassed 845 yards and 11 touchdowns on just 55 receptions at Texas last year. He flashed big-play upside and has the size (6’2″, 205 pounds) and speed (4.34 40-time, 98th percentile speed score) of a stretch Z receiver. But there are concerns.
Mitchell was unproductive his first two collegiate seasons at Georgia and had to transfer to the much more passing friendly Big 12 to break out. He enters the NFL with one good year of production.
There’s also the matter of yards per route run being one of the most predictive metrics for a college receiver. The threshold players need to hit is 2.0 YPPR. Mitchell’s best seasonal yards-per-route-run figure was 1.68.
As fantasy managers, if we blanket faded every single rookie WR who entered the NFL since 2015, we would have missed out on DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin…that’s it.
Since 2015, there have been over 2,000 FBS WRs to leave college with a career YPRR below 2.00
Of those, only two could be classified as non-busts (multiple NFL seasons with 11.5+ FPG):
+ D.K. Metcalf
+ Terry McLaurin— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 29, 2024
Furthermore, Mitchell isn’t exactly walking into a great situation. The Colts had a 54% neutral-game-script pass rate last season, the ninth lowest in the league. And that was with Gardner Minshew starting most of the season.
Anthony Richardson is going to average at least seven rush attempts per game. That’s about 4-5 more than Minshew, and we’re being conservative with that estimate. I have Richardson projected for 525 pass attempts, which is probably on the higher end of his range of outcomes.
It is unlikely Richardson can support more than one fantasy WR. We know Michael Pittman Jr. is going to be relevant and startable. If there’s a second guy, the favorite is Josh Downs, who was actually a really strong route runner as a rookie last year.
At best, Mitchell projects to be third in the target hierarchy, assuming he can easily dispatch Alec Pierce, who is essentially a not-as-good version of Mitchell.
In my projections, I assumed a nothing role for Piece with Mitchell as the clear WR3. I have Mitchell at a 15% target share, catching 41 passes for 573 yards and 4.0 touchdowns. That comes out to 7.2 fantasy points per game — not a number even remotely worth rostering.
The PFN consensus projections are a bit more bullish on Mitchell. However, even at 9.2 PPG, that only puts Mitchell at WR57.
I have Mitchell ranked at WR65, which is more in line with my projections that put Mitchell at WR68. That’s slightly behind Mitchell’s WR62 ADP.
As you may have gathered, I don’t have much confidence in Mitchell turning into a quality NFL receiver. Therefore, I won’t be targeting him in fantasy this year.
However, given his late ADP, there’s no opportunity cost in drafting him. If you are more bullish on him than me, there’s no real downside if he fails. You can just drop him.
Late-round picks are all about upside. It definitely exists with Mitchell. I just view it as unlikely to materialize and would prefer to target other plays. Nevertheless, Mitchell is not a bad dart to throw.