The worst-kept secret in the league finally became reality this week. After nearly six months of speculation, Aaron Rodgers officially signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers ahead of mandatory minicamp. One of the all-time greats at quarterback, Rodgers still brings name value and leadership to any locker room.
But over his last three seasons, Rodgers’ production has fallen far from the four-time MVP and Super Bowl champion version of himself. That decline is one reason why some analysts believe the pairing of Rodgers and head coach Mike Tomlin could end in disappointment.
Are the Aaron Rodgers-Led Pittsburgh Steelers a Legitimate Contender?
Under Tomlin, the Steelers haven’t posted a single losing season — a remarkable coaching feat. But they also haven’t won a playoff game in nearly a decade.
The hope is that Rodgers’ experience and savvy can help push the team over that hump. But it doesn’t take much digging to realize the gap between the quarterback Rodgers once was and the player he is today — and how that fits with today’s Steelers.
Last season, Pittsburgh’s two quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, ranked No. 17 and No. 15 on PFSN’s QB+ metric. Rodgers, coming off a torn Achilles, landed at No. 21.
Wilson and Rodgers are practically interchangeable when you stack up the recent numbers. Colin Cowherd, host of “The Herd” on FS1, pointed out some eye-opening comparisons.
“Since 2022, they are IDENTICAL quarterbacks”@ColinCowherd on the converging career paths of Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson pic.twitter.com/4oJpffM9mk
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) March 17, 2025
Since 2022, their stat lines have been nearly identical:
- Wins and losses: 14-21 for Rodgers vs. 17-24 for Wilson
- Completion percentage: 63.7% for Rodgers vs. 63.4% for Wilson
- Touchdowns: Wilson has four more
- Passer rating: Wilson leads, 90.7 to Rodgers’ 89.2
The glaring issue for both has been the lack of postseason wins. After the Steelers closed last season with five straight losses, Craig Carton of “Breakfast Ball” doesn’t see much upside for the team with Rodgers under center.
“They could certainly be a Wild Card team,” Carton said.
But that’s where the optimism ends. “They have no chance of winning their division. They have a very tough schedule. They are better, but they’re not winning a Super Bowl.”
.@craigcartonlive reacts to Aaron Rodgers signing with the Steelers 👀
“They have no chance of winning their division. They have a very tough schedule. They are better, but they’re not winning a Super Bowl. Much like the Indiana Pacers are not winning the NBA championship.” pic.twitter.com/XOZkH62k9C
— Breakfast Ball (@BrkfstBallOnFS1) June 6, 2025
As Carton mentioned, the Steelers face a brutal stretch of games this year, including five high-profile matchups. Among them are Rodgers’ long-awaited revenge game against the New York Jets and his first-ever meeting with the Green Bay Packers after 18 seasons with the franchise.
A tough schedule casts doubt on Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. And any talk of a Super Bowl run feels more like fiction than fact. For a team that finished 10-7 last season, Rodgers might bump them up by a game, at most.
He posted a career-low passer rating of 90.5 last year. There’s little to suggest a return to MVP form is coming. Expecting Rodgers to carry the Steelers deep into January single-handedly feels more like wishful thinking than reality.
a true Pittsburgh Steelers fan, since the 70’s signing Aaron Rodgers will be a big mistake and NO! Aaron Rodgers won’t take the Steelers to the super bowl that go’s to show how bright all the sports media groups and Steelers haters with their rat poison are they are all idiots