Throughout the 2023 season, the Minnesota Vikings were not a team offering fantasy managers much in terms of production at the running back position.
But through two games in 2024, the Vikings have offered two solid options in the backfield with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler, both of whom provide weekly value.
Which, if either, running back should be in your fantasy football lineup this week? Let’s examine.
Should You Start Aaron Jones or Ty Chandler in Week 3?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Jones is the player to start. His projected 10.8 points include 55 rushing yards to go along with a pair of catches for 12 yards.
That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for his running mate, Chandler, who comes in with a projection of 9.4 points.
One slight wrinkle in this dilemma for fantasy managers, though, is the fact that Jones is on the Vikings’ injury report this week. He left last week’s win over the San Francisco 49ers with a hip injury and it was Chandler who shouldered the load down the stretch.
The good news on Jones’ side of the ledger is that while he was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, he was a full participant on Thursday. So long as there is no regression in Jones’ practice reps on Friday, there appears to be a good chance he’ll play on Sunday against the Houston Texans.
Aaron Jones Fantasy Outlook This Week
Minnesota made it a priority to improve their rushing attack heading into 2024. The biggest offseason change made to the backfield was signing Jones in free agency. Jones had spent the first seven seasons of his career in Green Bay, where he averaged 82.6 scrimmage yards per game and scored 63 touchdowns.
In the first game of the season against the New York Giants, Jones fulfilled expectations. The Vikings, who had the fourth most pass attempts in the NFL in 2023, ran the ball 26 times. Jones had 14 of those carries and rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Adding even more comfort for fantasy managers was the fact that Jones’ touchdown came on a rushing attempt inside the Giants’ five-yard line, meaning there appeared to be no goal-line vulture on the roster.
That first Skol Chant really does hit different @Showtyme_33 https://t.co/uEE8ctyEx2 pic.twitter.com/dYqLxYkgiF
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 18, 2024
There are two reasons to hesitate this week on Jones. He would be preferred over Chandler but the fact remains that Houston’s run defense has been stout. Here are the stat lines for the two starting running backs who’ve faced Houston so far in 2024:
- Jonathan Taylor: 16 carries, 48 yards, 3.0 yards per attempt, long of seven yards, one touchdown
- D’Andre Swift: 14 carries, 18 yards, 1.3 yards per attempt, long of seven yards, zero touchdowns
For context, Taylor’s touchdown came one play after the Indianapolis Colts blocked a Texans punt and began the subsequent drive on the Houston five-yard line.
The one angle of optimism against the Texans’ run defense is that it hasn’t truly been tested. Houston has faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts (44) through two games, but they are allowing a clip of 4.0 yards per carry.
Jones makes sense for most managers. He was signed by the Vikings to be a feature back, Houston’s defense is relatively untested, and Jones should be healthy enough to take on his full workload.
Ty Chandler Fantasy Outlook This Week
What makes this week’s decision a true dilemma, though, is the fact that Chandler outpaced Jones’ production in Week 2. Plus, there is the hip injury Jones is dealing with that fantasy managers must monitor this weekend.
In Week 2, Chandler led the Vikings in rushes and yards, putting together a 10-carry, 82-yard performance against a strong 49ers run defense. Chandler ripped off a 25-yard run, too, displaying a burst that was missing for Minnesota a season ago.
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Chandler’s production hasn’t only come in Jones’ stead, either. Even before Jones left last Sunday, Chandler was receiving a 38% snap share for the Vikings through six quarters of play.
Ultimately, Chandler is a respectable wingman to Jones and holds fantasy value for managers going forward. Week 3, though, may not be the right spot to start him. Jones’ health looks to be on the right track and the matchup is not necessarily favorable enough to give him the green light.