With the return of football also comes the return of tough decisions for fantasy managers.
If you’re starting an elite running back in the top slot but have a real dilemma in terms of who to pair him with, you’re far from alone.
Let’s take a look at one potential scenario and make a pick between two teams’ top backs; Rhamondre Stevenson of the New England Patriots and Aaron Jones in his Minnesota Vikings debut.
Should You Start Aaron Jones or Rhamondre Stevenson This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Jones is the player to start. His projected 11.4 PPR points include a projection of 58.7 rushing yards, 1.83 receptions, and 13.2 yards, which narrowly outperforms the consensus projection for Stevenson (11.0 points).
My ranking for these two running backs aligns with the consensus that Jones is the better choice, and I’d personally widen the gap.
The Patriots bolstered the running back position this offseason, bringing in former thousand-yard rusher Antonio Gibson. He may or may not be ready to play, as he was a recent addition to the injury report, but it’s clear that if he’s good to go, he’ll have a role.
By contrast, the Vikings’ depth chart lists only one other back, the unproven Ty Chandler.
This week, Stevenson and the Patriots visit the Cincinnati Bengals while the Jones and the Vikings face the New York Giants on the road. Neither run defense is particularly high-end, but as far as last year, the Giants did struggle much more by most metrics.
The Patriots are almost universally viewed as the biggest underdogs of Week 1, while the Vikings are narrow favorites on the road.
However, the game script might not be an entirely disqualifying factor for Stevenson, as plenty of his game revolves around catching passes, and Pats quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s offensive line might not give him enough time to push the ball downfield.
While Jones is the clear choice here, consider Stevenson as a solid Flex option or an RB2, depending on your other options at the position.
Jones’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Jones should be set for a fantastic Minnesota debut after making a controversial move over from the team’s rival Green Bay Packers. Head coach Kevin O’Connell comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree and, as such, can do some great things with a high-end, versatile running back.
This is the 29-year-old Jones’ chance to prove that he’s still great after an injury-marred year in Green Bay.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
With Sam Darnold at the helm after a season-ending injury to rookie J.J. McCarthy, expect Minnesota to do everything in its power to take the burden off of Darnold’s arm and establish the run early.
The Vikings should be able to do so against New York’s defense, and if they’re met with early success to the point of taking a quick lead, expect them to lean on Jones for a full four quarters.
Stevenson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
For Stevenson, the question isn’t whether or not the Patriots will be forced to abandon the run; that is a nearly foregone conclusion. The real defining factor will be what they turn to instead.
New England’s receiving corps isn’t one of the NFL’s best, but there is some potential in the room, so new coordinator Alex Van Pelt may want to test the waters with some downfield passing.
It’s worth noting that Van Pelt’s offenses in Cleveland over the past few years have generally been pretty conservative, which could be great for Stevenson.
However, this is a very different roster, likely to be put in very different game situations, and it’s questionable how much influence Van Pelt really had with offensive wizard Kevin Stefanski running the show.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Jones and Stevenson in Week 1
Rhamondre Stevenson: Some players are gifted enough to rise above an offensive environment that offers support, but most fall victim to such situations and Stevenson seems to be falling into that bucket.
Last season, just 6.4% of his carries produced 10+ yards (31st of 35 qualified RBs). I don’t think he is most to blame for that. It’s tough when 60.9% of your carries come with 7+ defenders in the box, but the situation projects no different this year than last, and that has him sitting outside of my top-20 at the position, a spot in the ranks I expect him to occupy all season long.
If you drafted him as something of a Zero-RB build, he’s fine. He’ll get his fair share of touches, and the Bengals were the second worst first down rush defense of the past decade last season by EPA. It’s not likely to be an exciting day at the office, though his role does carry enough of a floor if you hammered the other positions early.
Aaron Jones: Could this game get chaotic? It features the two most blitz-heavy teams from 2023, and we aren’t talking about passing games that are likely to punish aggressive defensive play-calling. That should result in plenty of opportunities for Jones.
“Should,” is the keyword.
One cannot help but notice that Jones hasn’t been trusted with much in the way of work to open the past three seasons. Since the start of 2021, he has five games with under 12 touches despite playing over 46% of the snaps:
- 2021 Week 1
- 2021 Week 12
- 2022 Week 1
- 2023 Week 1
- 2023 Week 8
Yes, those games came as a member of the Packers, but maybe Jones’ body requires time to get into full game shape? I wish I could explain this usage. I can’t. But I can point it out and I can also mention that Ty Chandler has been on this roster during Kevin O’Connell’s entire tenure.
If you’re starting a Vikings back, it’s Jones, but I don’t feel great about it. At the very least, the game script shouldn’t be an issue – a sentence I might not get to write for this team again until late October.