With the NBA Draft on the horizon, the future of a few franchises rests in the hands of ping-pong balls. Whoever lands the rights to the top pick in 2025 — presumably Duke’s Cooper Flagg — could see their rebuild accelerate in a major way overnight. The “losers” may remain in tear-it-down mode for at least another season.
Let’s take the optimistic route, though. What does the future look like if these teams win the lottery on Monday night?
How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work?
Before 2019, tanking was rewarded more significantly. The team with the worst record had a 25% chance of getting the top pick. The second-worst had a 19.9% chance, the third-worst 15.6%, and so on.
That setup was scrapped ahead of the 2019 NBA Draft, due to what many called excessive tanking down the stretch in hopes of better odds.
Losing is still somewhat rewarded, but the odds have been flattened. Combined with the play-in tournament, the league has raised the quality of competition late in the season. Here are the odds for the top pick, along with the teams currently holding those positions:
- Team 1 (Utah Jazz): 14.0%
- Team 2 (Washington Wizards): 14.0%
- Team 3 (Charlotte Hornets): 14.0%
- Team 4 (New Orleans Pelicans): 12.5%
- Team 5 (Philadelphia 76ers): 10.5%
- Team 6 (Brooklyn Nets): 9.0%
- Team 7 (Toronto Raptors): 7.5%
- Team 8 (San Antonio Spurs): 6.0%
- Team 9 (Houston Rockets): 3.8%
- Team 10 (Portland Trail Blazers): 3.7%
- This year, Teams 9–10 shared the same record. Traditionally, Team 9 would have a 4.5% chance, and Team 10 would have 3%.
- Team 11 (Dallas Mavericks): 2.0%
- Team 12 (Chicago Bulls): 1.5%
- Team 13 (Sacramento Kings): 1.0%
- Team 14 (San Antonio Spurs): 0.5%
The NBA will hold the lottery for the top four picks. The remaining non-playoff teams will fall in line by regular-season record. The TV reveal will be done in dramatic fashion (from 14 to 1), but what really matters is if one of the top-four odds holders falls out of the top four.
NBA Draft Lottery What-Ifs …
Utah Jazz
We laid this out in our NBA Mock Draft at the end of the regular season, and nothing has changed. Utah gave 2023 16th overall pick Keyonte George over 4,100 minutes of experience across his first two seasons as part of a rebuild, rebounding from rock bottom (win totals over the past five seasons: 52, 49, 37, 31, 17).
Improving from 17 wins is a low bar. LeBron James won 35 games as a rookie with a Cleveland Cavaliers team that also won 17 the year before. That’s more of a ceiling than a realistic comparison.
Lauri Markkanen is locked in for the long term (one year into a five-year deal worth $238 million). Drafting Flagg would give him a true running mate. John Collins, entering a contract year, could soon be out.
Utah also has upside pieces sprinkled throughout. If the Jazz stay healthy and engaged, the wins will come. They were pacing for 21 wins through February. Add a few more coin-flip games (they lost three overtime games in a 2.5-week stretch), and the jump isn’t that far-fetched.
Win Change: +7
Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr was last year’s No. 2 pick. While he didn’t make a major impact on wins (without a weird 6–4 stretch in February–March, Washington would’ve finished with a sub-19% win rate for the second straight year), he showed enough growth to believe the direction is at least right.
Alex Sarr Splits
- Pre-All-Star Break: 11.4 points, 2.1 FTA, 2.2 assists, 2.3 fouls
- Post-All-Star Break: 15.6 points, 3.0 FTA, 2.7 assists, 1.9 fouls
It’s baby steps, but progress. Bub Carrington, the 14th overall pick last year, also looks like a piece. He started 57 games, averaged 2.7 assists per turnover, and shot 40% from 3 in February and 39.3% in April.
Outside of those two, this is still a full rebuild. If you put Flagg on all three teams with the best odds, Washington likely sees the least short-term benefit — but that’s why teams tank. A talent like Flagg can change everything fast.
The Wizards were the fourth-worst team against the spread this year (42.5% cover rate), meaning they underperformed already low expectations. Replace their 16-game losing streak with the rest-of-season pace and you get to 22–23 wins. That feels about right.
Win Change: +5
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets won 43 games in 2022 but have averaged just over 22 wins per season since. But don’t mistake poor results for lack of talent.
- Brandon Miller: 22, 21.0 PPG in Year 2
- LaMelo Ball: 23, four years left on his deal
- Mark Williams: 23, RFA after next season
- Miles Bridges: 27, two years left on deal
Charlotte went 5–3 in January when Ball was fully healthy. In that stretch, they lost to Cleveland (won second half by five), Phoenix (led in the fourth), and Memphis (won final 36 minutes).
This team might just need good health to get back into the play-in picture. Add Flagg, and the playoffs are possible right away — though at full strength, there are still at least six East teams a tier above.
Charlotte was 14–24 in games decided by single digits in 2024. Add Flagg, shift some of those into the win column, and keep the core healthy, and 37 wins (like the Heat had this year) isn’t far-fetched.
Win Change: +22
Pie in the Sky
The 76ers (10.5%) have had the top pick twice in the last nine drafts (Ben Simmons in 2016, Markelle Fultz in 2017).
With Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey combining for nearly $400 million in contracts, acquiring talent outside of the draft is tricky. But if Philly hits on Flagg? A Maxey/Flagg duo could match the 41.3 points and 14.2 assists Maxey and James Harden combined for two seasons ago — when the team won 54 games and Embiid played 66 times.
The 76ers would need Embiid to exceed expectations health-wise, but Flagg would elevate them into a strong Tier 2 team.
The most entertaining result for neutral fans would be the Spurs (6.0%). The franchise has nailed every No. 1 pick it’s had (David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Victor Wembanyama). Add in Stephon Castle (post-All-Star: 17.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists) from last year’s No. 4 pick, and this core is no joke.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are set up as the top team in the West for a while, but there are five teams fighting to be next. And if the Spurs land Flagg, they’d join that group at full strength.
A motivated Golden State Warriors team blew a 12-point fourth-quarter lead at home to a shorthanded Spurs roster. With Flagg in the mix and the team healthy, their starting unit could stack up with any non-Thunder West contender. Their versatility would make on-the-fly development possible. If it happens, pencil in a “Spurs make the Final Four in 2026” prediction.
