As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are New England Patriots RB Pierre Strong Jr.’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Pierre Strong Jr.’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
On paper, the Patriots didn’t absolutely need another RB in last year’s draft. So, they drafted two — that’s how they roll.
In addition to bell-cow experience (sophomore and junior years), Strong caught 50 balls in college, including 20 as a senior. Much of his 2022 value seemed to hinge on whether he replaced or even complemented a declining James White in a passing-down role.
Then White retired over the summer. Strong looked more intriguing by the day. Could he become a fantasy bargain? Not at all. Rhamondre Stevenson took over when Damien Harris got hurt and, for all intents and purposes, never looked back.
And yet, Strong briefly showed why Bill Belichick was so high on him in the draft. The rookie carried the ball 10 times for 100 yards and a score. He also caught all seven of his targets for 42 years. Despite the minimal role, it was a nearly flawless debut campaign.
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Now Harris is in Buffalo, while Stevenson is entrenched as the starter. There’s room for someone to step up as the No. 2. Kevin Harris is in this backfield, while New England also just added Ezekiel Elliott after week one of the preseason.
Of the three, Strong might have the highest ceiling. His biggest red flag is ball security. He fumbled five times in 11 games as a senior. This won’t fly in New England. Ball security — and the near-elimination of mental mistakes in general — will be key to his development and fantasy impact.
Yet, if Strong can step into that critically important handcuff role, he’ll have instant value in a run-friendly offense.
And it should be noted that Stevenson was never a high-volume ball carrier until last season when the team didn’t have a better option while trying to eke into the playoffs.
How will Stevenson respond to the dramatic usage uptick? Presumably, he’ll be fine. But we’ve seen plenty of RBs regress after taking on significantly more work than they’ve ever had.
Strong is the ultimate high-payoff dart throw in that he might wind up with no more than 30 touches this year, or he could hit 150+ if things break right. The former would make him a bust, regardless of where you draft him. The latter would make him a bargain — again, regardless of where you realistically draft him.
Should You Draft Pierre Strong Jr. This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Strong with an ADP of RB75. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at RB68. This presumably will tick down even further after the addition of Zeke.
Risk-friendly fantasy managers should rejoice. His market value is low enough to keep him off of most draft radars. In other words, you can probably snag him in one of the last two rounds if you believe that he offers more upside than Zeke.
Patriots running back room:
Rhamondre Stevenson
Ezekiel Elliott
Kevin Harris
Ty Montgomery
Pierre Strong
JJ Taylor
CJ Marable pic.twitter.com/SVu1EW8IkQ— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz)
As noted above, that won’t necessarily be a good thing. His 2023 projections are all over the place, reflecting the muddled nature of New England’s backfield beyond Stevenson.
But if you agree that Strong is the second-most-talented RB on this team, then he needs to be rostered, period. Because if he earns some starts, he just might prove that he’s as good as fellow fourth-rounder Stevenson.
