As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Keenan Allen’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The Chargers’ underrated prospects in 2023 mirror those of their longtime star receiver. Last year, a Week 2 rib injury to Justin Herbert impacted him for several games. Allen and Mike Williams missed a combined 12 contests (including the playoffs).
They lost three winnable matchups vs. championship-caliber opponents. In a six-point defeat to the 49ers, Herbert didn’t have Allen or Williams. In three fourth-quarter possessions, any of which could have resulted in a game-winning score, he was forced to target Tre’ McKitty and DeAndre Carter (four combined times) more than Austin Ekeler and Joshua Palmer (three combined times).
Then there were their two three-point losses to the Chiefs. Allen sat for one of them. In the other, Patrick Mahomes hit Travis Kelce for the game-winning score with 31 seconds remaining.
And, of course, blowing a 27-0 lead in the playoffs to the Jaguars was the icing on the cake of a season in which nearly everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
But while he struggled to stay healthy, Allen dominated in eight full regular-season games, racking up a 60-675-4 receiving line, along with the fifth-best catch rate (74.2%) among wideouts with 50+ targets. Across a full season, that projects to a 128-1,434-8 line, which would have put him in elite company.
In other words, as recently as last season, Allen was still at the top of his game — which equates to being near the top at his position. While his age (31) suggests a coming decline, it appears that the biggest concern is not a per-game statistical regression but rather more injuries.
That doesn’t mean he’s free and clear as a weekly top-12 performer. Williams looms as a boom/bust receiver, and rookie Quentin Johnston might be a year or two away from becoming Herbert’s No. 1 WR.
But as long as Allen’s body holds up, he’ll operate in 2023 as a target-friendly receiver with good hands in a phenomenal passing attack. Herbert still managed to throw for 4,739 yards last season. He topped 5,000 the year before. He’s going to keep throwing — and throwing well — while Allen will continue to be featured prominently.
There’s a clear opening for Allen to hit 100+ receptions, 1,275+ receiving yards, and a career-high 9+ scores in a rebounding offense.
Should You Draft Keenan Allen This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Allen with an ADP of WR19. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR15. These are somewhat conservative estimates that assume Allen’s best days are firmly behind him and/or that rookie Johnston will at least partially cut into his ceiling.
I see Johnston impacting Joshua Palmer far more. This offense can support three wideouts, plain and simple.
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We shouldn’t be surprised if Johnston, Williams, and Allen eclipse 1,000 yards each, especially if the overworked Austin Ekeler’s workload is reduced ahead of an expected playoff push.
Allen’s market value assumes a roughly 80-1,050-5 receiving line. There are more catches, yards, and touchdowns to be had for the Chargers’ likely future Hall of Famer. The team needs him, and they’ll probably use him as much as ever.
