Robby Anderson enjoyed a career year in 2020, but does his fantasy football outlook project that was an outlier? Anderson caught 95 of 136 targets for 1,096 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns last year. He is now reunited with former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. Will the receiver meet or exceed his production from last season at his ADP in 2021?
Robby Anderson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Anderson thrived in his first season with Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He recorded an average depth of target of 14.7 from 2016 to 2019. This suggests Anderson was primarily used as a deep threat in New York. However, he averaged 9.6 receiving air yards per target in 2020.
The Panthers’ offense provided him an opportunity to threaten defenses vertically and line up from the slot. Anderson caught 43 of 54 targets for 425 receiving yards and 1 touchdown from the slot last year. This trend should continue in 2021 after the departure of receiver Curtis Samuel in free agency. Samuel led the Panthers with 66 slot targets in 2020.
Anderson (98) had a higher passer rating than D.J. Moore (71) when targeted from the alignment last season. This trend extends to the two receivers’ overall passer rating when targeted in 2020. Furthermore, Anderson set a career-high in yards after the catch (502). His versatility should continue to be on full display in 2021.
How will the targets be distributed in Carolina?
Moore and Anderson will continue to operate as Carolina’s top two receivers in 1A and 1B roles. Darnold has a history of providing his slot receiver a steady dose of targets, which will benefit Anderson more than Moore.
Carolina has 200 available targets entering the 2021 season. The Panthers acquired David Moore during free agency earlier this year. He’ll be competing with second-round draft pick Terrace Marshall during training camp to be named the Panthers’ No. 3 receiver. Running back Christian McCaffrey will also receive a sizeable target share in 2021.
Last season, Anderson and Moore combined for a 50% target share. Samuel accounted for a 19.3% target share, while McCaffrey saw 16% when he was active.
We project Anderson, Moore, and McCaffrey to have the highest target shares in Carolina. Additionally, it would be surprising to see tight ends Ian Thomas and Dan Arnold surpass 50 combined targets.
Robby Anderson’s fantasy projection
Darnold is in a great position to rehabilitate his career with the Panthers. The former No. 3 overall pick provides the staff a quarterback with the arm strength to take more risks downfield. Anderson recently mentioned that he sees something different in the signal-caller since being reunited in Carolina.
We have Anderson projected for around 140 targets, 87 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns.
Robby Anderson’s ADP
Anderson’s Fleaflicker ADP is 85.3 in half PPR formats as the 31st receiver off the board. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Anderson has an ADP of 74 as the WR31 overall. Meanwhile, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 82.9.
Should you draft Anderson in 2021?
Anderson is a better value than Moore for fantasy managers in drafts. Both receivers should receive a similar number of targets next season. Yet, Anderson has an advantage due to the rapport he already has with Darnold, who will not hesitate to throw downfield.
Last season showed us Anderson’s floor, but his ceiling will be much higher in 2021.
