Evaluating the teams is one thing, but those who end up at the top of March Madness take a holistic approach, understanding that the path has as much to do with who makes the Final Four as anything.
Which region is most up for grabs, and which one projects as a cake walk?
March Madness: Region Rankings
Pressure makes diamonds, so don’t take these rankings as an outright dismissal of the teams involved. That said, based on the teams that fill these regions from top to bottom, we have a pretty clear order of difficulty.
CUSTOM RANKINGS: College Basketball Predictor
The Midwest Region not only has, for my money, the best team in the field but also the greatest depth. In order for Michigan to advance to Indy, they are going to have to navigate waters that include my…
- Best nine seed
- Best five seed
- Best 10 seed
- Best 11 seed
- Best 12 seed
- Best 13 seed
- Second-best eight seed
- Second-best two seed
When adjusting for competition in the given season, Yaxel Lendenborg and the Wolverines grade as the best team I’ve tracked since the pandemic (2024 Purdue and 2025 Duke are the next two teams in that respect). They are excellent and more than capable of passing every test, but it should be noted that they project for the toughest path by a wide margin, something that your competition may not be aware of.
MARCH MADNESS: Fill In Your Bracket Now!
Arizona sits atop the West Region, and that region grades out as the next-most-competitive set of teams. Their path is slightly more difficult than Michigan’s, though not as difficult as the other two, in large part because of Purdue’s Big Ten championship profile (my fourth-ranked team in this field).
They wouldn’t have to face Purdue until the Elite Eight, but to get there, it’s possible they have to get past SEC Champion Arkansas, the second-best four-seed in the field.
As you move down the seed list, you’ll see a Wisconsin team that will gain steam as a sleeper due to its quality of wins, and BYU looms as a team that lacks elite depth but has a player in AJ Dybantsa who could play in the NBA tomorrow.
The East and South are close in overall difficulty, and nowhere near the other two. Duke and Florida are powerhouses as the one-seeds, but UConn has shown some cracks of late (East), while Houston and (West) grades out worse for me than most, and UNC is very much beginning to feel the absence of Caleb Wilson.
Do with that information what you will. Does that mean you go with the chalk in the “easier” regions (Duke and Florida) while embracing variance in the others (maybe an Iowa State and Arkansas type of thing)?
Do you go the other way (Michigan and Arizona) while taking a chase on the three seeds otherwise (Michigan State and Illinois) in an effort to be different?
The first step in winning your March Madness pool is picking a lane and committing to it. I’ve presented to you some data here, and we’ve got plenty more available to help you make your final decision!
