There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is it more prominent than in NFL player prop bets. With literally thousands of props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the 1 p.m. ET slate of games.
Top NFL player bets to bet today
All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise specified. 1 unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.).
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: 1) What line I bet it at, 2) the line at the time I wrote this, and 3) at what price I’d no longer be interested.
[bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]Last week’s plays went 4-4, losing 0.41 units. I am not one to make excuses. The results are what they are. But we did lose Lamar Jackson’s pass attempts by one, Elijah Mitchell’s rushing yards over due to injury, and Parris Campbell’s receiving yards under on the final meaningless play from scrimmage in overtime.
I say this to reinforce that the process was there, but sometimes the bounces just don’t go our way. These things tend to even out in the long run. With all that said, let’s get to this week’s NFL player props.
Tom Brady under 276.5 passing yards (-115)
I think we’re going to look back at this number in a couple of weeks and wonder how it was ever so high. It’s only been one week, but I’m very concerned about Tom Brady this season.
Now, admittedly, this is all speculation based upon media reports, but I really think Brady’s off-the-field stuff is affecting him on the field. This is not the same Brady. I think part of him regrets returning for one more year and he’s a bit mentally checked out.
I have no inside information; this is purely a guess on my part. But the guy I saw on the field against Dallas last week did not look like the same guy we saw lead the league in attempts, yards, and touchdowns in 2021.
Brady threw for 212 yards last week. More concerning, he attempted just 27 passes. Yes, it was a non-competitive game with the Cowboys unable to score. However, Brady didn’t attempt fewer than 30 passes all of last season.
I think the Bucs’ game plan this season is going to be ball control and defense. Since joining the Bucs, Brady has gone over 276.5 passing yards in just one of his four starts against the Saints. He’s also lost every game.
My concerns about Brady’s performance combined with the slew of injuries to Bucs wide receivers has me confident that he will not even get to 250 passing yards against the Saints this week.
I bet this at -115 on MGM. Unfortunately, the highest number I see now is 271.5 at -115 on both DraftKings and MGM. I expect this line to move downward, but there’s really no amount it can move to where I wouldn’t still bet it. It’s not getting anywhere near the 250 number I think Brady won’t eclipse anyway.
Tom Brady over 0.5 interceptions (-130)
See above section regarding my thoughts on Brady overall. Brady threw a pick last week against the Cowboys and has thrown at least one interception in all four of his starts against the Saints since he joined Tampa Bay.
I bet this at -130 on DraftKings. It’s ticked up a bit to -135, but that’s not about to deter me. I’m pretty confident Brady is throwing a pick today. It’s obviously not going to move off of 0.5, but if the juice gets to -150, I would be a bit more hesitant.
Alvin Kamara under 52.5 rushing yards (-115)
Last week, in a favorable matchup against the Falcons, Alvin Kamara carried the ball just nine times for 39 yards. He was reportedly dealing with a rib issue that impacted his play.
During the Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay, Kamara has reached 40 rushing yards in just one of four games. Last season, the Bucs had the fastest pace of play in the league. In Week 1, they had the third slowest. Meanwhile, the Saints were middle of the pack.
I think we’re in for a slow-paced, low-scoring affair. Kamara’s volume is not where it used to be before Mark Ingram returned. I really think he needs at least 13 carries to have a shot to surpass this number, and I don’t think he’s getting that many.
I bet this at -115 on MGM. I’m including it here because I bet it, and I want to include every bet I make. However, I don’t expect Kamara to play, so this will likely wind up being moot.
Michael Thomas longest reception under 20.5 yards (-109)
It’s been a long time since I’ve been able to target Michael Thomas’ longest receptions prop under. While always incredibly talented, Thomas was never really a splash play guy.
Thomas’ career yards per reception is 11.7. His highest single-season yards per reception is just 12.4, which was his rookie year. In his two games against the Bucs during the Tom Brady era (both of which occurred in 2020), Thomas did not catch a pass longer than 20 yards.
Last week, neither Dak Prescott nor Cooper Rush completed a single pass longer than 20 yards against the Bucs.
I bet this at -109 on Ceasars. Sometimes, I get a better line by betting things sooner. This is not one of those times. Thomas’ longest reception is now up to 21.5 at -111 on Ceasars. Hopefully, that holds by the time you all see this and you all get an extra yard. If Thomas’ longest reception is exactly 21 yards, I’ll just go bang my head against a wall.
Chase Edmonds over 21.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Ravens’ top four cornerbacks are all banged up this week. That should compel Mike McDaniel to implement a more pass-oriented game plan.
Chase Edmonds is the Dolphins’ lead back and primary receiving back. Last week, he caught all four of his targets for 40 yards.
Meanwhile, the Ravens were just bleeding receiving yards to running backs in Week 1. Breece Hall and Michael Carter combined for a whopping 13 receptions for 78 yards. And you’re telling me all Edmonds needs to do is catch a couple of passes to get to 22? Yes, please.
I bet this at -110 on MGM. Currently, you can get over 22.5 at -113 on FanDuel, or you can pay a little extra juice and take over 20.5 at -130 on PointsBet. I would support either of these options and be willing to bet it up to 23.5.
Kenny Golladay under 31.5 receiving yards (-110)
One of my favorite ways to bet props is to just repeatedly hammer the under on wide receivers that aren’t NFL-caliber players. In 2020, Miles Boykin and Andy Isabella unders were the gifts that kept on giving. This season, I’m thinking that guy might be Kenny Golladay.
Last week, Golladay commanded a whopping two targets which he caught for 22 yards. In his last 11 games, Golladay has hit 30 receiving yards just three times.
Of course, there will be weeks where this bet loses. But I plan to take Golladay’s receiving yards under every week for as long as the number remains reasonably high, as I think we will win more than we lose.
I bet this at -110 on MGM. This line has been fluctuating a bit. Currently, I see under 30.5 at -115 on DraftKings and MGM. Although I am fully on board with fading Golladay, this is still a game of probabilities. If this line drops below 30, I’d probably pass.
Jonathan Taylor over 96.5 rushing yards (-115)
This is another bet I’m doubling up on from last week. We hit on Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards over against the Texans. The books haven’t adjusted the number. So, we take it again.
The process that led me to this bet last week applies once more. Here is what I said last week, but updated based on this week’s matchup against the Jaguars:
Last season, the Colts ran the ball 47% of the time in neutral game script. That increased to 57% in positive game script (leading by 7+). Taylor averaged 106.5 rushing yards per game last season. Most importantly, Taylor went over 100 yards in every single game the Colts won last season.
The Colts are coming off a rough tie with the Texans in a game they should’ve won. Although they’re only field goal favorites in Jacksonville, I expect them to win this game. In JT’s last three games against the Jaguars, he’s rushed for 77, 116, and 253 yards. Simply put, he’s going to rush for over 100 yards more often than not.
I bet this at -115 on MGM. Since the Colts are now without Michael Pittman, Taylor’s line has shot up to 100.5 at -120 on PointsBet, which is currently the best price I see. Obviously, I don’t like you all having four fewer yards to work with, but I do think JT will see a massive workload given the Colts’ receiver situation. I’d still take it at 100.5.