If you’re making a San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams DFS lineup for Week 4 Monday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
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49ers vs. Rams DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
49ers DFS considerations
We should be reminded, yet again, that Jimmy Garoppolo is a glorified game manager. When the Niners are clicking on the ground, through the air, and on defense, he’s a fantastic piece of this puzzle. But when a game manager throws a late-game pick to essentially seal the loss, as well as takes four sacks, then there’s little room to recover.
For all the success the Niners have had against the Rams since 2019, Garoppolo’s numbers have been tepid at best. He’s a key factor in how we’re constructing this DFS lineup. Because 300+ yards and/or 3+ touchdowns seems unrealistic. Even 225+ yards and two scores might be a stretch. Last year he averaged 254 passing yards and 1.3 passing TDs per start. That seems like a ceiling tonight.
What does that mean for the rest of this offense? Well, it’ll be tough for Garoppolo to feed Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. One of the three is very doable against a (mostly) dependable Rams defense. Two out of three seems like a stretch. And Jeff Wilson Jr. might have trouble moving the ball on the ground against a D yielding only 3.8 yards per carry. He’ll probably need help through the air to hit double-digit points.
Rams DFS considerations
Is Matthew Stafford still a top-12 DFS QB? He’s outside the top 24 in QB fantasy points per game. Yeah, it’s still early. But yikes, that’s not what bettors want to see — unless you’re betting against Stafford.
DFS lineups should consider likely scoring ranges, and I see this game coming in around its 42.5 over/under. In other words, we might expect four or five touchdowns, and with two strong defenses (and a turnover-prone Stafford), we might anticipate only three or four offensive TDs.
Cooper Kupp will fetch a pretty penny. Allen Robinson II, not so much. But what are the odds Robinson goes off? Not high. The backfield also faces plenty of questions, including whether Darrell Henderson Jr. can reclaim a timeshare with Cam Akers, or if Akers is now the official lead back. These are costly decisions because these are mostly costly players. If we roll the dice on one or two, we’ll need a very cheap flier somewhere else.
Recommended DFS lineup
I’m recommending Kittle ($6,600 normally, $9,900 as Captain) in our Captain slot. A handful of guys tonight can hit 25 points. Kittle is one of them. He’s caught 7+ passes 15 times (including three times against the Rams, though that’s more “interesting” than “useful” when crafting a DFS lineup). He’s also had 70+ yards and a score 15 times. Do not sleep on Kittle. Oh, and he’s cheap compared to the other big names facing off on Monday night.
This gives us cap space to comfortably add Samuel ($10,400) and Wilson ($8,200), as well as Kupp ($12,000). Not a bad foursome.
With $9,500 remaining, let’s roll with Tyler Higbee ($5,200), on the assumption Stafford will use him often when the Niners’ secondary locks down his wideouts. And Matt Gay ($3,800) completes the scene. While we could choose Robbie Gould instead, since I believe this will be a close game, I’m going with the guy with the (arguably) bigger leg.