If you’re playing a San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
After a tough and surprising loss to the upstart Falcons, San Francisco faces an even more challenging matchup against Kansas City, which must still be bruised from its last-minute defeat to the Bills.
The last time an NFL postseason didn’t feature either San Francisco or Kansas City? 2014. The time before that? 2009. So yeah, these are interesting times.
If Jimmy Garoppolo airs it out like he did this past Sunday, then he and his three primary receivers might hit the sweet spot against a defense yielding the fifth-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns per game. They’ve picked off only one pass.
If we consider the Chiefs’ offensive prowess, we might envision the 49ers going pass-heavy to capitalize on this favorable offensive-defensive alignment. Because on the ground, KC’s defense has given up only 4.0 yards per carry (fifth-best) and 0.6 rushing TDs per game (tied for sixth-best).
But wait! The Niners just traded for Christian McCaffrey. Will he be involved? As of Friday, no one knows.
But while Jeff Wilson Jr. has performed admirably in place of the injured Elijah Mitchell, he’s benefited from having the second-highest yards-before-contact mark among all RBs. Wilson’s subpar yards-after-contact broken tackle rate caught up with him against Atlanta, and his lack of usage in the passing game makes him too TD-dependent for DFS lineups — especially at his steep price, even if McCaffrey is inactive.
Speaking of running backs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on the other end of the spectrum, owning one of the league’s lowest yards-before-contact rates (1.7), but making up for it with the eighth-highest yards-after-contact rate (2.6).
CEH’s bigger challenge, however, is with usage. He’s not functioning as a bell cow, hitting double-digit carries only once in six contests. His receiving production has also slowed considerably these last three weeks.
When we factor in the 49ers’ elite run defense (league-best 3.3 yards per carry), we might understand why the Chiefs’ widest path to victory flows through the air. Some might say, “That’ll be tough, too. The Niners’ pass defense ain’t too shabby.” And those nameless people would be correct. San Francisco is yielding the second-fewest passing yards and passing TDs.
But context is everything. Aside from the high-flying Geno Smith and Marcus Mariota, the 49ers have faced Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield. Collectively, those four QBs have thrown 19 TD passes and 20 interceptions. San Francisco can’t be credited entirely, or even mostly. These four QBs have been bottom-tier producers most of the season.
So let’s not overstate the abilities of the Niners’ pass D. Yes, they have a great unit, but they haven’t yet faced a QB like Patrick Mahomes. So any DFS lineup should include at least two — if not three — passing-game-focused Chiefs.
Top DFS Lineup for 49ers vs. Chiefs
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Let’s roll with Brandon Aiyuk ($8,400 normally, $12,600 as Captain) in our Captain slot. It’s a toss-up whether he or the more expensive Deebo Samuel leads Niners receivers in this one. Placing Aiyuk here gives us a little more financial flexibility.
For our five Flex spots, we’ll use Samuel ($10,600) and our old friend Kyle Juszczyk ($1,200). As expected, Juszczyk was a great value play last week (7.3 DFS points) and should net 4+ again on Sunday.
Because of these decisions, we can afford Travis Kelce ($11,200). Huzzah! But wait, there’s more. We have enough remaining for JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,800) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,000).
Smith-Schuster is coming off his best performance of the season, while Edwards-Helaire has tanked the last two weeks. But as we know, last week’s stats don’t tell the whole story. Edwards-Helaire has posted 5+ fantasy points in the receiving game in five of six contests. Last week? Zero.
I’m envisioning the Chiefs returning to their starting RB as an offensive focal point — a key figure in establishing the run against a tough defense, and a safety valve for Mahomes. So, in addition to the seemingly high-upside Smith-Schuster, let’s take a leap and go with Edwards-Helaire.
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