The Thanksgiving nightcap has the potential to be a good game, but, in my opinion, this is a mismatch, just like the early games on the holiday slate. So what does that mean for the same game parlay picks?
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
49ers -340, Seahawks +270
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Has a bird team ever defeated Brock Purdy in the NFL?
Brock Purdy is coming off of a perfect passer rating performance, a game in which he checked every box and was in control throughout. His path to success is quick and accurate decision-making, allowing his elite quartet of playmakers to get the ball in space and make plays.
It is not to threaten defenses with his legs. If we remove a pair of games against the top two defenses in terms of blitz rate this season, Purdy has given us single-digit rushing totals in six of eight games (one of those outlier performances came in a game with Deebo Samuel sidelined, something that won’t be the case tonight).
The Seahawks rank 24th in blitz rate through 11 weeks and due to my belief that this game could be dominated by the road team, kneel-downs could well work in our favor if this leg of the SGP is in doubt late.
As for the domination of this game, it might be a slow burn. The 49ers rank eighth in average time of possession, while the Seahawks rank 31st. This could be a low-possession game where the Seahawks make a few early stops, but the talent difference figures to win out with time.
This season, six of San Francisco’s seven wins have come by double figures, proving that they can win by a margin over four quarters. In losses this season, the fightin’ Geno Smiths are averaging just 4.5 yards per play and 11.3 points per game.
Drill down even further, and you’ll notice that the Seahawks have scored a total of, not an average of, six second-half points in those losses. This game has the makings of a 49ers win where the halftime score doesn’t fully represent the domination, but the final score does.
- Trivia Answer: Technically, yes. Purdy started the NFC title game last season against the Eagles and is thus assigned the loss (left after throwing four passes). Outside of that stumble, he has appeared in four games against bird teams and has won them by an average of 22.5 points.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: 49ers -6.5, 49ers 2H -3.5, Seahawks team total under 20.5, Brock Purdy under 9.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +485 (at DraftKings)
*Looking for a feast? String all three Thanksgiving Day SGPs together (all are posted, or check my Twitter for the links) for a cool +18498 payout. Imagine how far that money would go on Black Friday!
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