To say the New England Patriots will be huge underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday would be a huge understatement.
The 49ers opened as 10.5-point favorites for their Week 4 home game against New England. San Francisco is coming off a disappointing road loss to the Los Angeles Rams, while the Patriots are licking their wounds after last Thursday’s humiliating road loss to the New York Jets.
However, with key 49ers players still nursing injuries, New England couldn’t have picked a better time to visit the defending NFC champions.
Banged-Up 49ers Upset By Rams in Week 3
Despite playing without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle, the Niners held a 14-0 lead over their NFC West rivals on Sunday. But Matthew Stafford and company surged back in the second half, with Joshua Karty kicking a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
The result left both teams with 1-2 records.
Rams take the lead with 2 seconds to go!
📺: #SFvsLAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/zrO7D49QLM— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
It was a deflating loss for the 49ers, who received 175 yards and three touchdowns from Jauan Jennings but just five catches for 48 yards from Brandon Aiyuk. Brock Purdy continued his solid start to the season — 22-of-30, 292 yards, three touchdowns — and Jordan Mason posted 77 yards on 19 carries.
Surprisingly, the biggest problem remains San Francisco’s loaded defense.
Kyren Williams ran for 89 yards and posted three total touchdowns. Stafford racked up just 221 yards but didn’t commit any turnovers. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined, Tutu Atwell caught four passes for 93 yards.
The 49ers likely will be fine, and weird stuff happens in divisional games. But San Francisco isn’t playing well and will likely be undermanned on offense for at least another game.
What’s the Latest on George Kittle and Deebo Samuel?
We know the Patriots won’t have to deal with McCaffrey, who’ll stay on injured reserve through at least Week 5 due to an Achilles issue.
But what about Samuel and Kittle?
Samuel suffered a calf strain in Week 2 and initial reports indicated he would miss at least two games. Unless the star receiver beats that timeline, he’ll sit out — or be limited in –Sunday’s game against New England.
Kittle’s situation is more unclear.
The star tight end injured his hamstring during practice last week, and the ailment was serious enough to keep him out of Sunday’s contest. The 49ers will return to practice on Wednesday, at which point we’ll get a better sense of Kittle’s recovery and Week 4 availability.
However, hamstring injuries can linger for a while. Kittle is among the tougher players in the NFL, but it’s fair to assume he’ll be a lesser version of himself if he suits up against the Patriots.
No matter how you slice it, New England (who is dealing with its own rash of injuries) is catching a break ahead of arguably the most daunting game on their schedule.
Can the Patriots Pull Off a Stunner in San Francisco?
We’d feel better about the Patriots’ chances if they weren’t dealing with so many injuries and coming off such an ugly performance. Until they figure things out on the offensive line, they probably shouldn’t be picked to win any game.
Nevertheless, New England probably would be 2-1 had it not allowed a late blocked field goal in the Week 2 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. This team is better than people give it credit for, although injuries on both sides of the ball have caused the floor to lower even further.
And, believe it or not, there’s a path to victory in San Francisco.
On offense, it all starts with protecting Jacoby Brissett.
The Patriots allowed pressures on a league-high 45.8% of dropbacks in the first three weeks, per TruMedia. Their 12.5% sack percentage is third-worst in football, and their 44 total pressures allowed are tied for sixth-most.
That sounds like a recipe for disaster against the 49ers, and it likely will be. However, San Francisco surprisingly ranks just 16th with a 34.1% pressure rate, and their eight sacks are tied for 13th. So, this unit hasn’t dominated like it’s capable of.
The numbers are even worse against the run.
The 49ers have the fourth-worst rush defense EPA at -1.65. Their rush defense success rate is 56.5%, seventh-worst in the NFL. San Francisco has allowed 4.5 yards per carry, the 11th-highest average in the league.
Thus, the Patriots could have a shot if they keep Brissett upright and shorten the game by establishing the run. It’s easier said than done, but it’s not impossible.
As for the defense, New England’s secondary is talented enough to limit the Niners regardless of whether Kittle plays. Christian Gonzalez can blanket Aiyuk, and Jonathan Jones can cover Jennings with safety help.
But none of that will matter if the secondary gets hung out to dry by the pass rush and the run defense.
The Patriots were solid against the run the first two weeks but cratered against the Jets. With Christian Barmore (blood clots) and Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pectoral) both likely done for the season, they will struggle to stop some of the league’s top rushing attacks, including the 49ers.
The pass rush also must generate more consistent pressure. Keion White has been excellent, but he accounts for half of New England’s eight sacks. The Patriots enter Week 4 with the league’s 23rd-ranked pressure rate at 29.8%.
If the Patriots are to have any chance of winning in San Francisco, they’ll need to make Purdy uncomfortable and prevent the 49ers offense from getting into a rhythm.
The good news for the Patriots is they’ll have had 10 days to recover and gameplan for a struggling and depleted opponent. That still might not be enough.