The game of the day, and possibly of the year, is the San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles rematch of January’s NFC Championship Game. These are arguably the two best teams in the NFL, and there is no shortage of star talent on both offenses to target for player prop bets.
But which players should you be focusing on for this matchup? We break it all down with our top 49ers vs. Eagles player prop bets.
Top 49ers vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-129 at Ceasars)
Katz: Apparently, road Brock Purdy and home Brock Purdy are things. I’m just not sure I buy it. Purdy has only thrown multiple touchdown passes in five games this year. But it doesn’t get much easier than an Eagles defense that is the second worst in the NFL against the pass.
The Eagles just gave up 34 points to the Bills last week. Josh Allen threw two touchdowns against them in an epic shootout. I think we could see something similar this week.
Soppe: Great minds! Sam Howell. That’s the full list of QBs with a sub-two-TD pass game against the Eagles this season in a game in which their offense scored at least two touchdowns. Howell is the only one, and even he lit them up for four passing scores in the second meeting.
I feel good about the 49ers scoring 2+ offensive touchdowns in this game (30.1 PPG in Purdy’s past 16 healthy games), and that means I’ll happily lay this price on Purdy tossing multiple scores!
Deebo Samuel Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Soppe: I understand where this line originated: 15.3 rushing yards per game this season, and he’s actually come in under that average in three of his past four. But not all matchups are created equal.
If you remove Deebo Samuel’s three games against the blitz-heaviest defenses on San Francisco’s schedule up to this point, his per-game rushing average jumps up to 21.5 yards. I’ll roll the dice on that being more symbolic of how he is used this week against a low-blitz Eagles team that is likely to devote resources to slow this passing attack.
George Kittle Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The Eagles are the worst team by DVOA in defending tight ends this season, and they’ll be missing one of their starting linebackers in Zach Cunningham (plus Nakobe Dean, who is on IR). On top of that, this is a defense that should be gassed after playing over 90 snaps last week.
George Kittle’s production can be inconsistent because there are so many mouths to feed on this 49ers offense, but he has gone over this number in four of his last five games, including two of the previous three since Samuel has returned.
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-105 at FanDuel)
Blewis: I have a pretty simple rule — if I can find odds for Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown at -110 or better, I take it.
I don’t need to give you many stats to explain why. Everyone knows the dominance of the Brotherly Shove, but Hurts is a threat to score every week regardless of the Tush Push as well, as he has demonstrated in the last two games.
Even when you remove attempts from inside the 5-yard line, Hurts has 21 rushing attempts in the red zone this season, which is four more than both D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell.
Obviously, the best chance of this hitting is on a QB sneak at the goal line, but this bet doesn’t completely hinge on that happening.
D’Andre Swift Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: I’m running it back with Swift after I gave out the Over on his rushing + receiving yards line last week, which hit.
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As I have mentioned before, this Eagles rushing attack is far better when interior offensive lineman Cam Jurgens is in the lineup instead of Sua Opeta. When Opeta started for an injured Jurgens from Weeks 5-8, Swift averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. If you take away those four weeks, Swift would be averaging 5.5 yards per carry for the season instead of 4.8.
I also think the Eagles will lean more on their run game in this matchup to keep their defense off the field after they played 95 snaps last week. Against a 49ers defense that is 24th in EPA/play and 25th in success rate in stopping the run, the Eagles should be able to find some success on the ground.
DeVonta Smith Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: DeVonta Smith is due for a big reception almost every week, and he has had one for at least 22 yards in all but three games this season. This might be a coincidence, but all three of those games were on the road, and today’s matchup is in Philly.
For the season, only six players have more receptions of 20+ yards than Smith. Not only is Smith a big-play receiver who excels at making contested catches, but Hurts throws a really good deep ball and isn’t afraid to take shots downfield.
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