After the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl, we will be without NFL action for seven months. As sad as that is to think about, lining your pockets with money could soften the blow, and that’s the goal of these same game parlays.
Yes, plural. With a close spread and plenty of fans on either side, I have a statistically supported SGP for both final outcomes — no matter how you think this game plays out, I have a path to juice up your ticket a bit!
49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Odds
49ers -122, Chiefs +102
49ers vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Pick
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Who was the leader in receiving yards for both teams in the Super Bowl LIV meeting between these two teams that remain on the roster?
Let’s start with telling a story of where the favorite takes care of business. This might not be the most popular of angles due to the fanfare around the Chiefs and the underwhelming playoff production of the 49ers up to this point, but for the majority of this season, the balance of the Niners has been as impressive as any team in the league.
In the event that the 49ers cover this spread, they figure to end the game in style. Kansas City games have stalled coming out of the half for the majority of the season (no more than 21 points scored in the second half in 19 of 20 games), and their offense has been to blame (no more than seven points in 11 of those games).
That “11” number is identical to how many times the 49ers have allowed seven or fewer second-half points in their 19 games this season. Brock Purdy and company have thrived after the break, leading the league by scoring 14.1 points per second half.
Now, we get creative. The 49ers operate at the slowest pace in the league (30.7 seconds per play), and while the Chiefs move a little faster, they are by no means an up-tempo squad. In fact, their slowing of tempo is an extension of a trend that has developed over time.
Chiefs’ seconds per play:
- 2020: 27.7
- 2021: 27.9
- 2022: 28.5
- 2023: 28.8
When first researching this, I took this information as an excuse to select the game “under,” but there’s a better way to do it.
There is a laundry list of trends in the article above that suggests that this game gets off to a sluggish start. Given how strong both of these defenses are, a touchdown-less quarter seems very possible, and we might well get it in the first 15 minutes.
Between long drives and capable kickers on both sides with no weather concerns, the possession count could be held in check, thus limiting TD opportunities.
If that leg comes through, neither team reaching 30 points feels like a safe correlated leg. The Chiefs haven’t scored 30 points in a game since the beginning of December, while the 49ers have been very spotty since getting humbled by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16.
- Week 16 vs BAL: 7 second-half points
- Week 17 at WAS: 17 points on final 7 drives
- Divisional Round vs GB: 7 first-half points
- Conference Championship vs DET: 7 first-half points
Even the most optimistic 49er fan isn’t looking for their team to get into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes — by including these two scoring legs instead of simply playing the under, your ticket is 20.5% more valuable. That doesn’t mean it will win, but with two legs tied together like that, it’s a nice way to boost your payout.
- 49ers Same Game Parlay Pick: 49ers (-2), 49ers 2H (+1.5), “No” a touchdown is scored every quarter, Neither team scores 30 points
- Odds: +365 (at DraftKings)
Circling back to the article above and the idea that this game is likely to get off to a sluggish start, why not embrace that? We are expecting a low-scoring first quarter, and one of these teams has stepped up their first-quarter play while the other has been a read-and-react bunch this postseason.
Playoffs yards per play in Q1 compared to their regular season Q1 number
- Chiefs: up 8.2%
- 49ers: down 21.2%
Betting on the Chiefs’ defense has been profitable for the majority of the season, and if they hold up their end of the bargain, we are off and running!
For me, the player props take care of themselves if you’re backing the Chiefs. I dove deep into the quarterbacks once we knew this matchup was coming and formulated projections for every possible outcome.
As you can see (above article), Purdy’s projection is optimistic regardless of how the game plays out, but the number increases by 12-14 yards if the Chiefs repeat as champions.
On the flip side, our story is that of the Chiefs playing from ahead, and that puts Isiah Pacheco in a legacy sort of spot.
Per the articles above, Pacheco’s yards per carry after contact since Week 12 is up 22.7%, a similar trend that we saw develop late last season as well (up 21% following Week 14).
With the 49ers owning the third-worst defensive EPA against the run this season, the angriest runner in the NFL could be quite happy when all is said and done on Sunday.
- Chiefs Same Game Parlay Pick: Chiefs ML, Chiefs (+0.5) in Q1, Isiah Pacheco over 66.6 rushing yards, Brock Purdy over 246.5 passing yards
- Odds: +650 (at DraftKings)
- Trivia Answer: Travis Kelce (43 yards) and Kyle Juszczyk (39)
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