The San Francisco 49ers (-6, 50.5) will travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10. Below is our final pick for the game.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: 49ers -6
The 49ers entered this week with +130 odds to win the division, a ticket that I’m now holding due to my optimism that they will find their stride coming out of their bye (six straight wins following the off-week last season).
San Francisco has covered six of their past eight as a road favorite (hat-tip to the Week 10 Stats and Insights research packet), and with a significant rest edge, I like their chances at extending that mark.
The Bucs have, in my opinion, overachieved since the injuries to both of their star receivers and continuing to gamble on an outlier like that is dangerous. Baker Mayfield is dealing with a toe injury, and any limitations on his end make me feel even better about this angle.
I simply don’t trust Tampa Bay to run the ball in general, and that doesn’t change in this spot. They struggle to open up running lanes, making the sixth-best yards per carry after contact defense a tough sell.
If Tampa Bay is going to be one-dimensional without their weapons against a San Francisco team that could reach 30 points with relative ease in Christian McCaffrey’s return – I’ll take my chances!
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49ers vs. Buccaneers Game Stats and Insights
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers won six straight games out of their bye last season, outscoring the opposition 207-94 in the process.
QB: In Weeks 1-7 last season, Brock Purdy’s quick pass rate was 74.1%. Since, that rate has been trimmed to 55.4%.
Offense: Settling. The 49ers have kicked a field goal on 26.5% of their drives this season, up from 11.7% a year ago.
Defense: In Weeks 2-6, San Francisco forced their opposition to go three-and-out on 28.8% of their drives, a rate that spiked in the two weeks before their bye (43.5%).
Fantasy: Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Purdy were the only QBs to finish Weeks 6-7-8 as a top-10 fantasy signal-caller.
Betting: The 49ers have covered six of their past eight games as a road favorite (those two losses came in Weeks 2-3 this season, outright losses to the Vikings and Rams).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Will their fate depend on how they can produce on the road? Following the Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay plays four of five on the road (all of which are winnable: Giants, Panthers, Chargers, and Cowboys).
QB: Baker Mayfield has the longest active streak of multi-pass games at six straight (Josh Allen is second with four straight).
Offense: Tampa Bay has allowed pressure on just 12.8% of dropbacks over the past two weeks, easily the lowest rate in the league.
Defense: The Bucs have allowed opponents to convert 60% of third downs over the past two weeks (first seven weeks: 37.2%).
Fantasy: Cade Otton is one of four pass catchers to have 15 PPR points in each of the past three weeks, joining Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and Cedric Tillman.
Betting: Overs are 7-2 in the last nine instances in which a team on short rest faces one on an extended break.