4 NFL Player Props To Target in the Conference Championships, Including Miles Sanders and Ja’Marr Chase

4 NFL Player Props To Target in the Conference Championships, Including Miles Sanders and Ja’Marr Chase

There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the Conference Championships.

Top NFL Player Props To Bet Today

All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.

It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: what line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.

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As a reminder, our final regular-season tally was 176-129, +35.66 units. This was my first year meticulously tracking every bet I made. I can’t wait to do it again next season.

Fortunately, we still have three more weeks of the playoffs with seven more games. The Divisional Round was easily one of, if not my worst performance of the season. I went 3-6, -3.8 units, putting my playoff record at 11-10, -0.22 units. With just three games remaining, let’s get back on track and close out the season on a winning note.

To get my weekly NFL prop bets as soon as I place my bets, you can find them in the betting channel on the official PFN Discord or by following me on Pikkit @KatzFF.

Miles Sanders Under 50.5 Rushing Yards | -110 (DraftKings – 2 Units)

We open with my most confident play of the postseason thus far. Miles Sanders was quite efficient on the ground this season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Fifty rushing yards seems awfully low. It’s a threshold he’s hit in all but five games this season, including the playoffs. So, why the confidence he doesn’t get there now?

There are a couple of reasons. First, it’s the 49ers. The No. 1 run defense in the NFL. No team allowed a lower ypc (3.3) or fewer rushing yards per game (61.6).

Second, the Eagles have been using Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott far more in the past few games. This is no longer just a blip — it’s a trend.

MORE: 49ers vs. Eagles Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Conference Championship

Sanders has played exactly 40% of the offensive snaps in three straight games. During those games, we’ve seen the Eagles win by a single score, win via blowout, and lose by two scores. In every conceivable game script, Sanders is only a part-time player.

Philadelphia is one of the most aggressive, forward-thinking offenses in football. They’re not about to run it into a brick wall over and over again. We could be looking at a very pass-heavy game plan (combined with some Jalen Hurts rushes) and not much Sanders. I don’t think he gets close to 50 yards.

  • My line
    50.5 -110 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    51.5 -114 (FanDuel)
  • Lowest I’d go

Miles Sanders Under 14.5 Rush Attempts | -125 (PointsBet)

Given the limited options with just two games, I’m more inclined to double-dip on my strongest play of the postseason.

A big part of why I don’t think Sanders gets to 50 rushing yards is because the Eagles will just abandon the run when it’s unsuccessful. Combine that with a game that should be close, and we’re unlikely to see Sanders bolster his carry numbers by rattling off attempts to milk the clock late.

  • My line
    14.5 -125 (PointsBet)
  • Current line
    13.5 -110 (PointsBet)
  • Highest price I’d pay
    I’m not interested in paying more than -125. I’d rather take under 13.5 at better odds.

A.J. Brown Over 5.5 Receptions | +135 (PointsBet)

It’s been the DeVonta Smith show recently. While the Eagles have been successful, A.J. Brown hasn’t been shy about his frustration over the lack of targets. He hasn’t caught more than four passes in three straight games, but I think that changes this week.

In addition to the squeaky-wheel narrative and the aforementioned inability of teams to run on the 49ers, we have a defense that has struggled against opposing WR1s this postseason. DK Metcalf and CeeDee Lamb both caught 10 passes for over 100 yards against San Francisco.

MORE: NFL Conference Championship Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

By no means is this pass defense bad. It’s actually quite good. It’s just not as good as it is against the run. As a result, offenses are more inclined to pass, and they’ve had proven success doing so to their WR1. I think we see a monster game from Brown this week.

  • My line
    5.5 +135 (PointsBet)
  • Current line
    4.5 +-160 (BetMGM)
  • Highest price I’d pay
    I intentionally chose the better odds at 5.5 rather than lay -155 or worse at 4.5. Obviously, I think he gets over 4.5, but given that I think he’s catching 8+ balls this week, I’m not inclined to sacrifice 80 cents of juice for one reception.

Ja’Marr Chase Over 82.5 Receiving Yards | -114 (FanDuel)

I typically don’t like to take a team’s best player to go over his yardage total. It’s a square play, and that’s not where the value lies. But, see my previous statement about limited options this week. Also, there are legitimate reasons to like Ja’Marr Chase this week.

First, he’s gone over this number in three of his last four games and seven of his last nine. One of those was the Bengals’ first game against the Chiefs back in Week 13.

Second, Chase hasn’t really had a massive game since Week 14. This is the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs have a bottom-10 pass defense. I like him to step up in a big way.

  • My line
    82.5 -114 (FanDuel)
  • Current line
    83.5 -122 (FanDuel)
  • Highest I’d go