Ten weeks into the season, the NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape. With some rosters separating themselves as the true cream of the crop, they have taken a major lead over the rest of the league.
However, just like the top of the NFL, there have been a few teams whose focus has clearly shifted to the 2026 NFL Draft, with their chances of a playoff berth vanishing by the second. After Week 10, here is what that group looks like.
2026 NFL Draft Order After Week 10
Here is the current 2026 NFL Draft order after Week 10:
- Tennessee Titans, 1-8
- New Orleans Saints, 2-8
- New York Giants, 2-8
- Cleveland Browns, 2-7
- New York Jets, 2-7
- Las Vegas Raiders, 2-7
- Miami Dolphins, 3-7
- Washington Commanders, 3-7
- Cincinnati Bengals, 3-6
- Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta Falcons, 3-6)
- Arizona Cardinals, 3-6
- Dallas Cowboys, 3-5-1
- Baltimore Ravens, 4-5
- Minnesota Vikings, 4-5
- Houston Texans, 4-5
- Carolina Panthers, 5-5
- Kansas City Chiefs, 5-4
- San Francisco 49ers, 6-4
- Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-4)
- Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay Packers, 5-3-1)
- Chicago Bears, 6-3
- Buffalo Bills, 6-3
- Los Angeles Chargers, 7-3
- Los Angeles Rams, 7-2
- Pittsburgh Steelers, 5-4
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-3
- Detroit Lions, 6-3
- New England Patriots, 8-2
- Seattle Seahawks, 7-2
- Denver Broncos, 8-2
- Philadelphia Eagles, 7-2
- New York Jets (via Indianapolis Colts, 8-2)
Which Team Has the Best Chance To Land the Top Pick?
The results in Week 10 had some truly shocking consequences, as some of the worst teams in the league all registered victories. The Saints, for instance, after giving Tyler Shough the starting job and trading Rashid Shaheed at the trade deadline, seemed poised to focus on next year’s draft.
However, they were able to pull out a gutsy win over the Panthers. Similarly, in a matchup with major implications for how the draft would shake out, the Jets were able to beat the Browns on the back of two return touchdowns that gave them an early lead.
The Raiders, in one of the worst showings of the year, could not handle business against a Denver Broncos team that repeatedly tried to give away the game. Moreover, a potential injury to Geno Smith could have dramatically improved their odds of getting near the top of the 2026 NFL Draft.
However, for Week 10, no result was as much of a shock as the game between the Dolphins and the Bills. While one is in full-scale pandemonium and has already fired their general manager, the other is supposed to be a Super Bowl contender.
Yet, at the end of the game, the scoreboard read 30-13 in favor of Miami, as they notched their third win of the season in truly dominating fashion. While it still keeps Buffalo firmly in the playoff race, the Dolphins have worsened their odds significantly of adding talent at the first overall pick next year.
PFSN’s Playoff Predictor not only forecasts the playoff picture and Super Bowl winner, but it also predicts which team will land the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. In addition to factoring in each team’s record, it also considers each team’s remaining strength of schedule.
Keeping that in mind, here are the teams with the best chances of securing the top pick after Sunday’s results:
- Tennessee Titans, 28.30%
- New Orleans Saints, 16.30%
- Cleveland Browns, 11.70%
- New York Giants, 11.60%
- New York Jets, 10.60%
- Las Vegas Raiders, 9.70%
Top Prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft
Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (FL)
Rueben Bain Jr. has been a disruptive defender for as long as he’s been on the college football circuit. After joining the Hurricanes as a four-star recruit, Bain racked up 7.5 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles in his true freshman campaign. Bain’s sophomore season was less productive, but he was nursing a calf injury, and he has a chance to bounce back as a junior. At 275 pounds, Bain has a rare body type for the position, with elite compact mass and natural leverage, and he’s an easy accelerator with awesome raw hand power. While power is his primary mode, he has a deep pass-rush bag and smooth upper-lower synergy, superb strength, IQ, and pursuit range in run defense, and surprising flexibility as a finisher.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Fernando Mendoza could be a potential first overall pick in waiting, and the leap could be coming at Indiana. At 6’5″, 225 pounds, Mendoza has the ideal prototypical frame, along with quick feet, nimble pocket mobility, and understated creation capacity and off-script feel. He’s a crisp rotational and consistent areal thrower who flashes high-end situational precision and layering ability. Even beyond that, he has the rifle arm strength and keen anticipation to make NFL-level throws. There’s a definite degree of arm arrogance in Mendoza’s game that he’ll have to tamp down, in order to minimize unnecessary risks and forced throws. Nevertheless, he has all the physical and mental tools to catalyze a rise as a franchise QB candidate.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Dante Moore has gone from dark horse to definite QB1 contender. It’s tough to call a former five-star recruit a dark horse, but Moore’s college career got off to a slower start than many expected. As a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, he started five of nine games played with subpar efficiency. Then he transferred to Oregon and threw just eight passes in 2024 while redshirting behind Dillon Gabriel. But now that Moore has had time to develop, and now that he has the reins in a QB-friendly Oregon environment, he’s looking like an early first-round pick. At 6’3″, 210 pounds, Moore boasts easy, effortless velocity and layering ability as his calling card, and he looks supremely poised, composed, and mechanically-sound for his age. He had ice in his veins against Penn State in a tough environment, and is on a steep ascent to potential QB1 status.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
Arvell Reese is a first-year starter for the Ohio State Buckeyes, who could be at the start of an early-round ascent in 2025. He was the Buckeyes’ best player in their season-opening win against the top-ranked Texas Longhorns, with nine total tackles and a sack. Along the way, Reese put translatable reps on tape as a pass-rusher, a run defender, and a coverage presence. At 6’4″, 243 pounds, Reese has a tantalizing blend of explosive athleticism, length, and forklifting strength. He used that strength to stack-and-shed in the run game, plaster solo blockers into the turf as a blitzer, and make solo stops in gap invasion. Meanwhile, his range and fluidity makes him dangerous as a rusher, as well as a dropper and matcher in zone coverage. Reese is on the rise; the only question is how high he goes.
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Caleb Downs has received first-round premonitions from the general consensus ever since he set foot on Georgia’s campus as a five-star recruit. An instant producer at the CFB level, Downs was a star for the Bulldogs’ vaunted defense in 2023, and then for Ohio State’s Championship-level unit in 2024. Now Downs is eligible, and he’s already in the conversation as one of the best safety prospects in recent memory. A fluid, explosive, and energized mover at 6’0″, 205 pounds, Downs is special in the box with his combined mobility, play pace, angle IQ, and physicality on blocks. And on top of his alley-running skills, he’s an instinctive cover man who can manage route relationships, transition, and clamp down on stems from different alignments. In short, he’s a game-changer.
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Carnell Tate first showed promise with a 52-733-4 receiving line last season, producing in spite of his place as the Buckeyes’ third option alongside Jeremiah Smith and first-round NFL Draft pick Emeka Egbuka. But in 2024, Tate’s technical feel was still underdeveloped. He was primarily a vertical threat for Ohio State, who lacked polish. That hasn’t been the case in 2025. Tate has reinvented his game, and has become a true route-running expert with rare sink, throttle control, and stem IQ for his size. He still has the long-strider range, body control, and catch-point focus that makes him so potent in 50-50 situations, but he’s a true multi-level separator who can win 1-on-1, convert on clutch downs, and generate big plays. A complete X or movement-Z, Tate will assuredly keep Ohio State’s first-round streak at WR alive, and he has impact starter ability.