What is better than an early Superflex mock draft? It’s the quickest-growing style of fantasy football league because it encourages strategy and comes with higher-scoring matchups.
New to the format? Just trying to get your brain in 2024 mode? Wherever you stand in your prep for the upcoming season, we have you covered with where the industry sits on the elite players at this moment.
2024 Superflex Mock Draft | Non-PPR
1.01) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
As much as we love to evaluate talent, everyone in consideration for the top spot is talented. I tend to break ties by the scoring environment in which these elite QBs find themselves, and so do you, even if you don’t know it.
That’s the reason we’ve dropped Justin Herbert so far down the rankings this year. We don’t have a Space Jam situation where the Monstars have sucked the talent from him; he simply has less help and will thus be in a position to produce for your fantasy team less often.
In that sense, is the QB1 title even up for debate?
Patrick Mahomes has to work in new pieces (rookie Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown), navigate the Rashee Rice situation, and deal with the potential management of Travis Kelce’s regular-season reps.
Josh Allen lost 44.8% of his receiving yards this offseason with Stefon Diggs being dealt to the Houston Texans and Gabe Davis joining the Jacksonville Jaguars.
While the other two top-tier signal-callers deal with impactful changes, the Eagles only increased their scoring equity by bringing in Saquon Barkley. You could argue that Barkley could take some valuable touches away from Hurts, but I’d counter that the drive-over-drive floor is now higher than it was, and that is a boost the other elites haven’t experienced this offseason.
Hurts’ stat line might look a bit different than last season, but “different” isn’t always “worse.” His range of outcomes is the tightest among those in consideration for this top pick, making him my clear-cut option.
1.02) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
None of us knew what COVID was the last time Allen failed to account for 42 touchdowns in a season.
Are we supposed to think that the departures of Diggs (clearly not a great fit for Joe Brady’s scheme) and Davis (don’t get me started) are going to tank Allen’s value?
His efficiency as a passer took off during the final month of last season as he grasped Brady’s system, giving me optimism for how he’ll open 2024. The receiver room is green, but with James Cook and Dalton Kincaid poised to develop, I’m not getting cute and passing on Allen.
1.03) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
In a down season, Mahomes flirted with 4,200 yards and completed north of 400 passes.
Entering the offseason, I had my reservations about him remaining in the top tier of fantasy signal-callers. I was concerned that with the Chiefs repeating despite a relatively bare cupboard of tools for Mahomes, they wouldn’t prioritize getting him help in 2024.
With Brown’s signing and Worthy’s drafting, that concern is gone. The Rice situation looms, but the floor of a great pocket passer like Mahomes is high, and his ability to extend drives (and thus increase his fantasy potential) only helps that.
I wouldn’t bet on Mahomes leading the position in fantasy scoring this season, but I feel good about him finishing as a top-five option, which makes him worthy of this pick.
1.04) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
The reigning MVP is coming off of a season in which he completed a career-high 67.2% of passes and cleared 700 rushing yards with at least five scores on the ground for the third time in five seasons.
Lamar Jackson’s athleticism is as impressive as anyone in the league, and he meshed well with offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Pushing all the chips into the middle of the table on Jackson would make sense for fantasy managers if not for the acquisition of Derrick Henry this offseason.
This is a different add than Barkley joining the Philadelphia Eagles in that Henry figures to absorb all of the short-yardage usage. While Hurts should still get plenty of “easy” points inside the 5-yard line, Jackson’s already limited potential in that range is likely to evaporate.
Baltimore’s signal-caller offers a nice floor, but without a bonafide WR1 and a featured back who excels at finishing drives, Jackson’s ceiling fails to measure up with that of the first three QBs listed above.
1.05) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
If you want to worry about Christian McCaffrey turning 28 years old this summer, be my guest. But until we see any sort of physical decline in his profile, I’m not projecting it.
CMC has appeared in 33 of 34 games over the past two seasons after being labeled “injury-prone” by many and has found the end zone 31 times in 27 regular-season games since being dealt to the 49ers.
If McCaffrey were injury-prone, there would be signs near the end of a long season that he was fatigued. If racking up 420 total yards and five scores across three playoff games is considered “wearing down,” we’ve set the bar too high.
There is risk in taking any running back in the first half of a Superflex draft, especially one that doesn’t reward per reception. But McCaffrey is the exception to most rules, and his role on this hyper-efficient offense doesn’t seem likely to regress anytime soon.
1.06) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
You’re looking at the franchise leader in many single-season marks after a standout 2023 (135-1749-12), and there’s no real reason to expect regression. CeeDee Lamb (25 years old) is in his physical prime, with stability under center, limited target competition, and an offense that needs to move the ball through the air.
I can’t imagine that you need much of a sell on Lamb’s spot, so how about a little weather analysis? Lamb’s only game from Thanksgiving through the end of the season that profiles as a weather threat comes against an Eagles defense that he turned 26 targets into 262 yards against last season.
1.07) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
If talent and opportunity are appealing to you, I have the player for you. If that’s not your thing, I have an opening in my league and would love to have you.
How much do the Texans believe in C.J. Stroud? They asked him to throw 91 passes in two starts to open his career (626 yards), and he never stopped impressing. Houston brought in Diggs this offseason, putting themselves in the conversation for the best trio of NFL pass catchers.
The most valuable asset in the NFL is a franchise quarterback on a rookie deal, and the Texans are being aggressive in making the most of this window. I want the centerpiece. With the addition to the pass-catching corps in addition to a full season of professional experience, look for Stroud to be even more aggressive this season — fantasy gold!
1.08) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
By averaging over 14 yards per catch in six of the past seven seasons and reaching a dozen touchdowns on three occasions, Tyreek Hill is as close to inevitable as we have at the receiver position. His two seasons in Miami have been near clones of one another, but with a massive scoring bump this past season.
There could be some natural scoring regression with Hill (43.3% of Miami’s TD receptions, including a 3-to-1 edge over Jaylen Waddle in red-zone looks a season after they were neck-and-neck for the team lead). But until defenses find a way to stay in front of him (35+ yard catch in eight of first 12 games last season), labeling Hill as an elite option is the only way to go.
Expecting 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns is dangerous, though we have no reason to think Cheetah falls short of those metrics given this four-year run of dominance.
1.09) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
By averaging 82.6 yards per game and essentially scoring twice every three games, Ja’Marr Chase’s first three seasons have been nothing short of remarkable. With a healthy Joe Burrow, Chase could potentially have the best season of his career in 2024.
Chase earned at least eight targets in each of his first eight games with Joe Cool under center last season and found paydirt six times over Burrow’s final six starts of 2023. I have him ranked as my top dynasty receiver (as I did 12 months ago as well), and he’s on the shortlist of players with a reasonably clear path to leading the position in fantasy points this season.
1.10) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Justin Jefferson and Michael Thomas.
There’s your entire list of players with more catches through their first three seasons than Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s an impressive list at face value, but it gets even better if you recall that St. Brown wasn’t a fantasy asset until December of his rookie season.
No one is going to label Jared Goff as an elite quarterback, but the connection with his top receiver is as good as any. Despite being the clear focal point of this young Lions offense, St. Brown reeled in 72.6% of his targets a season ago. That efficiency came with a nose for the end zone that he didn’t showcase prior (10 scores in 2023 after totaling 11 through two seasons).
With 14 of Detroit’s first 15 games indoors this season, I’d be happy to make the case for St. Brown to pace the position in fantasy production in 2024. You, however, don’t have to draft him under that premise, and in a Superflex setting, the price is even more manageable.
Passing on a quarterback in the first round isn’t something I’m itching to do, but St. Brown is worthy of making an exception.
1.11) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Go ahead and ask your draft room for Bijan Robinson’s yardage and touchdown counts from his rookie year. I assume that none of them guessed close to 1,463 yards and eight scores.
The Arthur Smith narrative was a fair one, but even that couldn’t slow this elite talent from putting up strong numbers when all was said and done. With a revamped offense and stability under center, why can’t Robinson push for similar per-game production to Dalvin Cook during his heyday with Kirk Cousins under center?
That would land Robinson in the 2,000-yard range with double-digit touchdowns. In my mind, that’s not a pie-in-the-sky outlook, it’s simply on the high end of a mean projection.
Robinson isn’t going to come cheap. And yet, this may be a discount when we look back on things in 12 months.
1.12) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Talent at running back is one thing, but the ability to elevate above offensive expectations is another. The Jets ranked 29th in scoring offense last year (15.8 points per game) but were the only bottom-five offense to get efficient production from their RB1 (5.3 yards per touch).
Breece Hall’s versatile skill set gives him the potential to lead the position in fantasy points for years to come, plus a healthy Aaron Rodgers gives New York’s offense the ability to sustain drives that didn’t exist in 2023.
The former Cyclone got his hands on the ball 299 times last year, and if Hall approaches that number this season, this ranking isn’t high enough.
2.01) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
The physical tools grade out in the Cam Newton range, and that profile alone is worthy of early-round consideration. The upside created by such overwhelming gifts is tough to fully understand until you see it, and while the lost rookie season due to injury (13 DNPs) is less than ideal, I’m not reading too far into it.
Sure, a QB who puts his body on the line carries risk, but Newton missed just three games in his first seven years. Meanwhile, another signal-caller with a general skill set like that of Anthony Richardson (Allen) hasn’t missed a game in five seasons.
The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason before spending the 52nd pick on Adonai Mitchell (a 6’4” athlete who scored on 11 of 55 catches last season with the Longhorns).
I’m expecting Indy to boast a top-10 offense this season. If that’s the case, you’re getting a strong return on investment at the turn.
2.02) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson holds the record for just about every receiving metric through four seasons of a career and has been a foundational piece on many fantasy champions. He’s scored 30 times in 60 career games and currently averages 98.3 receiving yards per game, a mere 14.2% ahead of any other player in the sport’s history.
So how does Jefferson fall to Round 2? It’s simple: uncertainty under center.
It’s not that we know Sam Darnold and/or J.J. McCarthy will fail; it’s that we don’t know that they won’t. Cousins provided the Vikings’ offense with stability and professionalism, getting Jefferson 21 more catches in 2022 than any of his other weapons saw targets.
Jefferson pretty clearly isn’t a system receiver, but there is a floor case in play that wasn’t with Cousins in control. You’re not likely to lose your league because you paid up for Minnesota’s alpha receiver, but the odds of him carrying your squad across the finish line are lower now than they were entering past seasons.
2.03) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
With 15 missed games over the past two seasons, it’s easy to forget that this is the same quarterback who gave fantasy managers 66 total touchdowns alongside 1,242 rushing yards from 2020-21.
Of course, one of those seasons came with the help of a receiver who demanded first-round draft capital due to rare athletic skills and attention to detail. Most quarterbacks would be lucky to play with one such player, but all signs point to Kyler Murray having hit the jackpot, as he gets a version of DeAndre Hopkins in Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr.
With an elite athletic profile and no shortage of supporting options loaded with upside (in addition to Harrison, 2023 breakout Trey McBride and prospect Michael Wilson, who is suited to take a nice jump), Murray’s path to joining the elite at the position is straightforward.
Of course, there are some health risks to navigate here, but if you’re a Ricky Bobby-type drafter, Murray is the man for you (in all formats, but especially Superflex).
2.04) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Twice in four seasons has Joe Burrow missed 6+ games, which is concerning. But if you believe that you’re taking on health risks when drafting any player, then there’s nothing that should back you off of Cincinnati’s franchise QB.
In his last two healthy seasons, Burrow threw for over 9,000 yards and accounted for 76 touchdowns (69 passing and seven rushing).
This manager is pairing an alpha receiver in Chase with an elite pocket passer, and I love this start. Does this leave the manager with a low floor should one of these two get injured? Of course, but the upside is worth chasing, especially with games against the Cowboys, Titans, and Broncos coming in December.
If the Bengals are as good as the industry is telling us (sixth in Super Bowl odds and -260 to make the playoffs), this stack should have no problem paying off your investment.
2.05) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
A bet on Tyreek Hill is a bet on Tua Tagovailoa, so stacking the two makes all the sense in the world for this manager. Hill was flirting with his 2,000-yard goal for the majority of last season, and while the big plays slowed down as the weather cooled, he was nothing short of dominant.
In 2023, Tagovailoa completed 69.3% of his passes (2022: 64.8%) and averaged north of 8.0 yards per attempt for a second consecutive season. A lack of rushing production (381 rushing yards across four seasons and last rushing scoring coming in November 2021) is what lowers his ceiling and ultimately makes joining the top two tiers at the position unlikely.
That said, Tua made it through all of last season healthy and threw nearly 33 passes per game in an elite offense. The weather concerns are fewer this season (three good weather spots in Weeks 14-16), but those who fear Tagovailoa’s upside in tough matchups will want to steer clear (Miami has dates with the Jets, 49ers, and Browns in December).
I’m not overextending to get Tagovailoa in most circumstances, but in a Superflex league where I’m already invested in this offense, sign me up.
2.06) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
De’Von Achane’s efficiency numbers stole many headlines in 2023, but Jahmyr Gibbs averaging 5.4 yards per touch on 104 more opportunities is just as impressive.
As a rookie, Gibbs wasn’t fully unleashed (two games with more than 15 carries). But with 11 touchdowns and a carry gaining over 20 yards in the majority of his games, there should be no doubt that he’s poised to be one of the best in our game for years to come.
Tackling Jahmyr Gibbs is like trying to catch smoke with your bare hands 💨
pic.twitter.com/OHekAQlpJp— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 29, 2024
David Montgomery’s presence naturally caps Gibbs’ upside a touch, though I’m not positive that lasts all season long. The veteran back opened last season as the featured option before getting banged up. When he returned, this was more of a committee, with Gibbs owning the edge in the passing game, a trajectory that could land him the 18-20 touch per game role that fantasy managers are begging for.
At worst, Gibbs’ role looks like it did last season, and we have proof that he can return strong RB1 numbers in that event. The upside? It wouldn’t be hard to argue that his reasonable 2024 ceiling is the highest at the position.
2.07) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Much like the holder of the eighth overall pick, this manager elects to pair the quarterback with their top-tier receiver. “Stacking” has been established as the norm in DFS formats, and while it’s gaining popularity in annual formats, it’s still not utilized enough.
In a Superflex setting, you’re going to need strong production from your signal-callers, and if Dak Prescott is going to have a big day, Lamb is likely to feast, making this a very reasonable tandem to target if given the opportunity.
Need proof? In each of Prescott’s final seven games with 250+ passing yards last regular season, his WR1 saw at least nine targets and found the end zone.
I think we’d be fortunate to get the 34.2 fantasy points on the ground from Prescott in his age-31 season that we got last year, but his fourth career season with 4,400+ passing yards and 30+ passing touchdowns feels reasonably safe. That makes him worthy of a look in the middle of Round 2 after the elite are off the board.
2.08) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
I’d say zero DNPs with 194 catches for 2,952 yards and 18 touchdowns across two seasons is a successful start to A.J. Brown’s Eagles career.
Sure, Brown managers last season will remember the slow finish (scoreless in six straight to conclude the regular season, failing to reach 60 yards in three of his final four games), but don’t let that blind you from the historic early-season run that saw him rattle off five straight games with 125+ receiving yards.
Simply put, he’s the alpha receiver in one of the premier offenses in the league.
DeVonta Smith will have his moments as the go-to option, but in evaluating season-long production, that role belongs to Brown. His size profile is difficult for any defensive game plan to deal with and makes up for a QB who can at times be inconsistent as a passer.
There will likely be some peaks and valleys if for no other reason than Philadelphia’s offense has plenty of talented pieces. But you can lock Brown in for well north of 1,000 yards with double-digit touchdown upside, a stat line that easily lands him among the 10 most valuable at the position.
2.09) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Garrett Wilson has posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons despite playing for one of the five worst passing offenses, a flaw that theoretically will be solved with Aaron Rodgers set to take the reins.
Earning targets hasn’t been a problem in the least — 9.3 for Wilson’s career — but a 56.5% catch rate should correct itself if Rodgers is on the field at all. If he is anything close to MVP form, there’s a world in which Wilson threatens to lead wide receivers in fantasy points by season’s end.
A slow start is very possible, but hold tight; there is untapped upside in this profile that could easily be realized this season. With a late bye (Week 12) and two warm-weather December games along with what figures to be a competitive AFC East, Wilson could be a fantasy star during the regular season and a fantasy MVP down the stretch.
2.10) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Any hesitation in drafting Jonathan Taylor is likely to stem from either health concerns or the potential for Richardson to take food off of his plate in the short rushing game.
It cannot be ignored that Taylor has missed 13 games over the past two seasons, but he will enter this year at full strength. And at just 25 years of age, Father Time isn’t exactly knocking.
As for the Richardson concerns, they are theoretically legitimate, but in practice, I’m not factoring it in. The Eagles saw their running backs rush for seven scores in a massive Hurts season a year ago, and Zack Moss scored four times in the four Richardson appearances last season with Taylor on the shelf.
The fact of the matter is that Taylor, for his career, averages 5.3 yards per touch and has scored 40 times in 53 games. I have the Colts ranking in the top third of the league in terms of points scored this season. If you’re of that mindset, Taylor isn’t just a solid pick here, he’s a threat to join the top tier at the position.
2.11) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
I would guess that you’ve overestimated Saquon Barkley’s age due to him occupying the spotlight from his first professional snap. Entering his age-27 season, the former Nittany Lion is coming off a year in which he averaged 88.7 scrimmage yards per game despite playing behind a shaky offensive line and an offense that lacked secondary threats.
None of that is going to be a concern in Philadelphia, a situation that should increase Barkley’s touch efficiency at least enough to offset any dip in volume. For his career, Barkley averaged 5.4 targets per game and 4.3 yards per carry. I see no reason why he can’t check both of those boxes in his first season with Philadelphia. If he does, this could prove to be a steal of a selection.
2.12) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Gus Edwards authored his best Derrick Henry impression as Baltimore’s lead man in the backfield last season, recording more touchdowns (13) than receptions (12). The King averaged a career-low 4.2 yards per carry last season for the Tennessee Titans, but I’m not reading too much into that given that he was handed the ball on the majority of his snaps.
With added offensive creativity, why can’t Henry record a seventh consecutive season reaching double-figure rushing scores? His body has held up incredibly well (no more than one missed game in seven of his eight NFL seasons), and joining the fourth-best scoring offense from a year ago profiles as a perfect fit.
This manager is chasing the stability that comes with a goal-line role, not a bad option in a format with lower-scoring matchups (non-PPR).
2024 Superflex Mock Draft | Rounds 3-6
3.01) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
3.02) Chris Olave, WR, NO
3.03) Davante Adams, WR, LV
3.04) Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
3.05) Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
3.06) Travis Etienne Jr., RB, JAX
3.07) Nico Collins, WR, HOU
3.08) Jordan Love, QB, GB
3.09) De’Von Achane, RB, MIA
3.10) Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
3.11) Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
3.12) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
4.01) Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
4.02) Brock Purdy, QB, SF
4.03) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
4.04) Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ
4.05) Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
4.06) James Cook, RB, BUF
4.07) Jared Goff, QB, DET
4.08) Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
4.09) Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
4.10) Mike Evans, WR, TB
4.11) Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
4.12) Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
5.01) Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
5.02) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
5.03) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
5.04) DJ Moore, WR, CHI
5.05) Drake London, WR, ATL
5.06) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
5.07) Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
5.08) Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
5.09) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
5.10) Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
5.11) DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
5.12) Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
6.01) Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
6.02) Travis Kelce, TE, KC
6.03) Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR
6.04) Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
6.05) Zamir White, RB, LV
6.06) James Conner, RB, ARI
6.07) Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
6.08) Christian Kirk, WR, JAX
6.09) Rachaad White, RB, TB
6.10) Baker Mayfield, QB, TB
6.11) Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
6.12) Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
As a consumer of content, I often want to know what a team could like if I’m picking at the beginning, middle, or end of my draft.
First Overall Pick
QB: Jalen Hurts (1.01)
RB: Derrick Henry (2.12)
RB: Josh Jacobs (4.12)
WR: Brandon Aiyuk (3.01)
WR: Keenan Allen (6.12)
Sixth Overall Pick
QB: Dak Prescott (2.07)
OP: Jared Goff (4.07)
RB: Travis Etienne Jr. (3.06)
RB: Joe Mixon (6.06)
WR: CeeDee Lamb (1.06)
WR: Jaylen Waddle (5.06)
12th Overall Pick
QB: Anthony Richardson (2.01)
OP: Jayden Daniels (4.01)
RB: Breece Hall (1.12)
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. (3.12)
WR: Stefon Diggs (5.12)
WR: Terry McLaurin (6.01)