2020 XFL Week 4 Picks: Will the early trends continue?

Week 3 of the XFL saw things primarily go according to the script, with three of the favorites winning. However, the Los Angeles Wildcats ensured that it would not be an entire week of victories by the favored teams, as they upset the D.C. Defenders 39-9. Now, as we turn our attention to Week 4, we have an interesting mix of games, all of which could have a defining impact on the season, even at such an early stage. With a fascinating set of games ahead, what picks do our team of handicappers like in Week 4 of the 2020 XFL season?

The statistics so far

Before we dive into Week 4 of the XFL, let’s take a look at how things have gone in the first three weeks from a betting perspective. In terms of totals, the under has been the prevalent play, with 8 of the 12 games seeing the under hit. However, in Week 3, we saw a 2-2 split between the over and the under, suggesting that the totals may now be being set correctly by Sportsbooks.

When it comes to the results, the home teams are both 8-4 ATS and on the Moneyline. If we break it down further, we can see that home favorites have gone 4-2 ATS and 5-1 in terms of the Moneyline numbers. In contrast, road favorites have struggled ATS, going 2-4, but have at least split the games according to the Moneyline, with a 3-3- record.

Some stand out numbers to watch out for are:

• Houston Roughnecks’ games account for three of the four games which have seen the over hit.
• The Dallas Renegades, New York Guardians, and St. Louis BattleHawks have yet to play in a game where the over has hit.
• The St. Louis BattleHawks are the only team with a 3-0 record ATS.
• Only the Dallas Renegades and St. Louis BattleHawks have covered the spread on the road this season (both 2-0). The other six teams have gone 0-8 combined.
• The only team not to cover ATS at home so far this season are the Dallas Renegades (0-1, Week 1 hosting the BattleHawks)

Los Angeles Wildcats @ New York Guardians (+7) O/U: 39.5 | February 29th, 2 p.m. ET

Chris Smith

“Sometimes, there are games that just jump off the board at you. The LA Wildcats and New York Guardians enter Week Four with identical 1-2 records but are clearly moving in opposite directions on the overall XFL power rankings. 

The Guardians return to the Tri-State Area off of consecutive embarrassing road losses in which their offense managed just one garbage-time touchdown. At the time of this write-up, there has been no major announcement from Kevin Gilbride about who his starting quarterback will be against Los Angeles. However, you have to think the Guardians give AAF stalwart Luis Perez a shot after leading NY to their only score last weekend. Regardless of who starts for New York, they will have to contend with a suddenly formidable Wildcats defense that gave Cardale Jones and the DC Defenders fits on Sunday evening in LA. 

While some might think this game is a classic overreaction spot, I don’t think the market has caught up to how much better the Wildcats are trending with Josh Johnson finally healthy. Los Angeles is averaging 24.7 points per game, and while the Guardians defense has been the one bright-spot early in the season, I think Johnson finds a way to move the ball in the Meadowlands Saturday, even if WR Nelson Spruce is unable to suit up. I’ll lay the 6.5 points with the road favorite here, expecting about a 23-13 final in favor of the visitors from Los Angeles.

I also think there is some value in the Wildcats as potential XFL Champions, currently at +1000 on FanDuel.

1u – Los Angeles Wildcats -6.5 | -110

Seattle Dragons @ St. Louis BattleHawks (-12) OU: 38.5 | February 29th, 5 p.m. ET

Ryan Gosling

“Can someone please explain to me why Brandon Silvers is still the starting QB of the Seattle Dragons? He is completing 53 percent of his passes while averaging 170 yards per game. He has a 6-4 touchdown-interception ratio on the season, including at least one interception in every game. Backup QB B.J. Daniels could finally provide this offense with some explosion, but they refuse to go to him.

Meanwhile, the BattleHawks and Jordan Ta’amu look like they could potentially win this entire league. St. Louis relies on a stout rushing attack involving Matt Jones, Christine Michael, and Ta’amu. Jones leads the XFL in rushing with 224 yards through three games. The offense is balanced and can put up points in the air and on the ground.

Seattle is not a good team, but 12 points are way too many. I think the BattleHawks and the Dragons have impressive home-field advantages, and I expect that to continue this week. St. Louis will be rocking for this game, and I can see the offense putting up points. The over/under is too low at 38. The BattleHawks have proven they can put that up themselves if need be. Hopefully, Seattle can get one or two scores, and we see this one soar over the total.”

1u – Over 38 Total Points | -110 (Lean Seattle +12)

Houston Roughnecks @ Dallas Renegades (+1) O/U: 49.5 | March 1st, 4 p.m. ET

Ben Rolfe

“This game has all the makings of being the headline grabber, not just of the week, but of the season so far. All of the Houston Roughnecks games have been entertaining this season, and with the Renegades rounding into form nicely, they should be able to stay with the Roughnecks. However, the Roughnecks simply seem to have too much firepower right now for the rest of the XFL. They are moving the ball with ease on all of their opponents so far and average 33 points per game. They are susceptible to being scored on by opponents, allowing 22.7 points per game so far this season. Dallas has looked better with Landry Jones under center, covering in two straight weeks on the road. In those two games, they have averaged 24.5 points per game, but I am not sure they can get to the 30-point region that I believe they will need to beat the Roughnecks.”

1u – Houston Roughnecks -1 | -110

Ryan Gosling

“Well, after three weeks of the XFL, we will now get arguably the best game of the season so far. The Houston Roughnecks are the lone undefeated XFL team and will be heading to take on the Renegades, who have now won two in a row. Houston has the best player in all the XFL in quarterback PJ Walker. They also have perhaps the best wideout in Cam Phillips.

Dallas, on the other hand, is coming into form with a healthy Landry Jones and the emergence of tight end Donald Parham. Parham had over 100 receiving yards last week against Seattle. Their run game is also coming together with Cameron Artis-Payne and Lance Dunbar.

This will be must-watch TV with offenses led by June Jones and Hal Mumme. I expect to see fireworks, especially considering the Roughnecks lead the league in touchdowns scored (13), but also lead the league in touchdowns allowed (nine). That is why I am going to lean to Dallas to win this one at home. Their defense is better than Houstons, and if their offense can keep up, then they will pull this one-off.”

1u – Over 50.5 Total Points | -110 (Lean Dallas +1)

D.C. Defenders @ Tampa Bay Vipers (+1.5) O/U: 44.5 | March 1st, 9 p.m. ET

Chris Smith

“Week 4 features a battle between two XFL franchises that I had vastly different expectations for after completing my preseason previews last month. At the outset, I thought the Tampa Bay Vipers were drastically overrated in the market, as evidenced by collecting on my Under 7.5 win total bet after only three weeks. Conversely, I was extremely high on the DC Defenders and their star quarterback, Cardale Jones, who I highlighted as a potential league MVP at +1000 odds.

After two straight home wins to start their inaugural season, the Defenders got smacked around in Los Angeles last weekend by the rejuvenated Wildcats. The question becomes whether that was just an aberration or a building trend of Pep Hamilton’s squad being a far better home than road team. We will undoubtedly find out Sunday evening in Tampa. If the Defenders can’t get past the winless Vipers in this bounce-back spot, then perhaps we all overreacted to their initial two-game win streak.

Aaron Murray returned to practice for the Vipers this week, although I think it’s fair to ask how much of a difference that even makes. Marc Trestman refuses to stick with Quinton Flowers at quarterback, despite the fact that he clearly provided a spark under center last weekend. I suspect the Vipers keep this one close at home, and I wouldn’t even be stunned to see them finally pick up their first franchise win. However, I think the Defenders find a way to survive this one coming off that embarrassing defeat in LA last Sunday night. Expect Rashad Ross to finally have a breakout game against a Vipers secondary that got torched by Cam Phillips and Houston last weekend.”

1u – DC Defenders Pick | -110

Click to view the running list of our bets for the 2020 XFL season. Be sure to bookmark that page and visit it often throughout the week to stay updated on our latest moves.

We will continue to release XFL plays and analysis throughout the week. Make sure to follow @PFNBets for all of our plays.