[Editor’s Note: Version 1.0 below originally published on February 20]
Ending the playoff drought was epic, but it wasn’t enough for the Buffalo Bills. Two years into the rookie contract of quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills have a hungry roster, a coaching staff primed to challenge for the AFC East crown, and four Super Bowl losses to avenge. The quest is far from over, but with this 7-round mock draft, the Buffalo Bills can get ever closer.
Team Needs
The Bills have two or three team needs that are clearly above the rest in terms of urgency. On offense, the Bills could use one or two more threats in the receiving core, where veterans John Brown and Cole Beasley are the only reliable targets set to return. Even if Robert Foster is re-signed, the Bills could use more dynamism to supplement Allen’s cast of weapons. Running back can be included there as well; Devin Singletary and TJ Yeldon are good rotational weapons, but another explosive player can be added.
On defense, edge rusher is a definite need, even if it might not be as urgent as one would assume. Incumbent starters Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy will both be back in 2020, but both are set to regress soon enough. Even if they keep trucking on for another year or two, the Bills could use more rotational fire on the edge, to pressure opposing quarterbacks organically, as well as upside for the future. There’s also a need at cornerback, where Tre’Davious White is the only stable constant at an uncertain position group. Levi Wallace and Siran Neal have shown promise, but Wallace is a free agent, and the Bills can easily capitalize on an athletic 2020 cornerbacks group, regardless.
Aside from these needs, the Bills are a relatively complete team. They have a good foundation on both sides of the trenches, and enough returning talent to field an elite defense in 2020. They could use more depth on the offensive line, as well as on the second and third levels of the defense, but after addressing the primary needs, the Bills’ draft strategy becomes relatively open-ended.
Buffalo Bills 7-round mock draft
Round 1, Pick 22: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
On the one hand, the Buffalo Bills aren’t in a great spot here. The #22 pick is one of the most awkwardly-placed picks in any NFL Draft. Most of the elite talent at the top of the NFL Draft is gone at this point, and second-round steals can become reaches if a team doesn’t perform their valuations properly. Luckily for the Bills, Brandon Beane knows what he’s doing, so he decides to stay put here and take LSU wide receiver, Justin Jefferson.
Wide receiver is the top need for the Bills this offseason, which sort of works out, since the 2020 wide receiver draft class is both top-heavy and exciting in its depth. By now, the top prospects are gone, but there’s still plenty of talent to choose from at this point. This selection ultimately came down to either Jefferson or Colorado wide receiver Laviska Shenault. I like the fit of both in Buffalo’s offense, but Jefferson’s ability to immediately compliment the Bills’ current weapons and proactively assist Josh Allen gave him the edge.
Shenault is electric after the catch, and he’d offer arguably more upside here, as Pro Football Network senior draft analyst Brad Kelly can attest. But heading into Year 3 of Allen’s contract, with a team ready to win now, the Bills are in a position to secure a more polished prospect. That’s Jefferson, a fearless technician who couples nuance with his functional athleticism.
Jefferson is proficient at beating press coverage with his lateral quickness and fluidity, and he has exceptional twitch on top of his route stems. He can create separation with his abundance of intelligence and movement speed, and while he’s not at the top of his position in terms of speed, he has more than enough to use space and create after the catch. Amidst all this, Jefferson’s body control and focus at the catch point might be his best trait, and that’s something he’ll need when snaring lasers from Josh Allen.
Other picks considered: WR Laviska Shenault, EDGE Terrell Lewis, CB Jeff Gladney, LB Josh Uche
Round 2, Pick 54: Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State
The Bills have some intriguing young talent at cornerback, but aside from Tre’Davious White, I’m not sold on anyone they have rostered. Levi Wallace is a free agent, Taron Johnson showed flashes in the slot but isn’t the best athlete. At the very least, the Bills can afford to invest more in one of the game’s most important positions, and at #54, getting Ohio State’s Damon Arnette is an excellent way of doing that.
Arnette will be 24 years old by the time his rookie season kicks off, but he can compensate for that age discrepancy with his ability to be a Day 1 starter on the outside, or in the slot, and a productive one at that. Arnette is a versatile cornerback with size, speed, vertical explosiveness, and a high-octane, all-in playing style that will serve him well in the NFL. He fits the Bills’ contention window to perfection and can infuse the secondary with the athleticism and moxie it needs to stay viable against modern NFL offenses.
Other picks considered: EDGE Julian Okwara, RB D’Andre Swift, OL Ben Bartch, CB AJ Terrell
Round 3, Pick 86: Ben Bredeson, OG, Michigan
If the Bills don’t re-sign Quinton Spain, then they’ll need another starter at offensive guard. And even if they do re-sign Spain, they have two starting guards who are nearing 30 years of age, and little depth behind them. The Bills need to supplement the interior of their line, and while it’s not necessarily a Day 1 need, addressing it fairly early isn’t a bad idea, especially considering how volatile Josh Allen can be under pressure.
At this stage of this Buffalo Bills 7-round mock draft, Michigan’s Ben Bredeson is an excellent fit. There’s no guarantee he’ll be available this late, but in this mock scenario, he was. Bredeson offers great size at 6-foot-5, 315, and he’s a good mover for his size. He brings a relentless mentality into the trenches, and while he’s a bit unpolished to this point, he has exciting speed with his punches and great power when squaring up against defensive linemen. Bredeson could start right away for Buffalo, or develop as quality depth until year two or three.
Other picks considered: LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, EDGE Khalid Kareem, TE Brycen Hopkins, OT Matthew Peart
Round 4, Pick 125: Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Memphis
Antonio Gibson only logged 71 total touches in 2019 but managed to glean over 1,000 total yards and 12 touchdowns from those opportunities. The Bills took a risk on a prospect with somewhat lacking production in 2019, when they drafted tight end, Dawson Knox, in Round 3. They can do the same with Gibson, and reap similar early benefits. As our own Andrew DiCecco recently noted, Gibson is a versatile prospect whose explosive athleticism should be highlighted by the upcoming NFL Combine. Gibson likely projects as a running back at the next level, where he can use his burst, elusiveness, and vision to be an invaluable playmaker. The Bills love their flexibility under Brian Daboll, and Gibson has the skill set to move all around the offense.
Round 5, Pick 155: Alohi Gilman, S, Notre Dame
The Bills’ safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is still one of the better tandems in the league, but both players will be 29 at the start of the 2020 regular season. The Bills can work now to improve their depth at the position, and if they can add future starting potential in the same swipe, even better. Notre Dame’s Alohi Gilman is an excellent acquisition in that sense. Gilman is an aggressive box player with enough twitch in his movements to close short distances with ease. He’s not the rangiest safety out there, but Gilman has more than enough utility as a tackler and run defender to warrant banking on his coverage profile.
Round 5, Pick 167: Alex Highsmith, EDGE, Charlotte
It might be uncharacteristic of the Bills to wait this long to take an edge rusher, but Charlotte’s Alex Highsmith is a great get in Round 5. Highsmith was one of the most productive defenders in the nation in 2019, earning 15.0 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles for the Charlotte 49ers. With his combination of 6-foot-4, 245-pound size and burst off the line, Highsmith has an impressive foundation, and he’s got the juice NFL teams look for in their edge defenders. With a year or two of mentoring from Hughes, Highsmith could be a future starter for Buffalo.
Round 6, Pick 188: Binjimen Victor, WR, Ohio State
Justin Jefferson will be a great addition for Daboll’s offense, and an immediate starter wherever he lines up, but that doesn’t mean the Bills can’t double-dip at wide receiver. Sure, it’s not sanitary, but it’s fun. And in this Buffalo Bills 7-round mock draft, Ohio State’s Binjimen Victor provides some very enticing upside this late. Victor has an imposing 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame, and he has impressive athletic freedom to go along with it. He’s raw, but he has the sheer size to compliment Buffalo’s current cast well, and in time, he could develop into a premier receiver.
Round 6, Pick 201: Tipa Galeai, EDGE, Utah State
This late in the Buffalo Bills 7-round mock draft, upside is weighed more heavily as the prospects with solid foundational traits have the best chance to outplay their draft position. Utah State’s Tipa Galeai is the definition of upside, as he has a long 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame to pair with excellent explosiveness and length. Galeai initially committed to TCU before an assault caused the program to dismiss him. He’ll need to answer for that again, as the incident will prevent Galeai from being able to take part in NFL Combine activities. But Galeai was able to turn his collegiate career and life around after that event, and he has enough potential to earn a chance this late.
Round 6, Pick 207: Brian Lewerke, QB, Michigan State
Matt Barkley is a good backup for the Bills, but he’s a free agent after the 2020 season, and the Bills don’t have a developmental option in place behind him. Davis Webb is set to join the team on a futures deal, but they could stand to add another arm through the NFL Draft. Brian Lewerke is a good candidate late. His steady decline throughout his collegiate career likely soured scouts on his viability. Still, Lewerke was dealing with a shoulder injury and poor coaching consistently in his time as the Spartans starter. Lewerke has good athleticism, arm talent, and competitive toughness, and in a stable situation, he could grow into a role as an NFL quarterback, providing security for the Bills.
Buffalo Bills 7-round mock draft recap
There weren’t any broken tables, but this Buffalo Bills 7-round mock draft was a thrilling venture in its own right. Let’s go back to the team needs, and see how Brandon Beane and Co. capitalized on their opportunities.
Primary Needs
- WR: LSU WR Justin Jefferson, Ohio State WR Binjimen Victor
- CB: Ohio State CB Damon Arnette
- EDGE: Charlotte EDGE Alex Highsmith, Utah State EDGE Tipa Galeai
Secondary Needs
- OL: Michigan OG Ben Bredeson
- RB: Memphis RB/WR Antonio Gibson
- S: Notre Dame S Alohi Gilman
Let’s roll, Bills Mafia.