12 NFL Prop Bets To Target in Week 7, Including Ezekiel Elliott, Travis Etienne Jr., and Wan’Dale Robinson

Heading into Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season, here are my top NFL prop bets for the Sunday slate of games, including action on Breece Hall and Alec Pierce.

There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is it more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the Sunday slate of games.

Top NFL Player Bets To Bet Today

All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.).

It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: What line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.

Last week’s plays went 6-11, losing 6.74 units. Now that my article includes the entire slate of games, I am just going to post my full record here. Currently, we are sitting at 58-49, +3.68 units on the season.

Week 6 was easily my worst week of the year. Long-time bettors know these types of rough patches are inevitable. We do our best to limit the losses and maximize the wins. We learn from our errors and look to rebound the following week.

Ezekiel Elliott Over 63.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings)

Ezekiel Elliott has only gone over this number in three of his six games this season. However, those three games have come in his last four.

Tony Pollard remains the superior running back, but Elliott has been running better as of late. He carried the ball 13 times for 81 yards last week in his most efficient game since Week 4 of last season.

The Detroit Lions allow 5.5 yards per carry on the ground. This is just a smash spot for Zeke. Not only do I like Elliott over 63.5 rushing yards, but I think betting him to have his first 100-yard rushing game of the season is a decent long shot as well.

  • My line: 63.5 -115 on DraftKings
  • Current best line: 64.5 -115 on BetMGM
  • Highest I’d go to: 66.5

Dak Prescott Under 34.5 Pass Attempts -125 (BetMGM)

This prop goes hand-in-hand with the Zeke prop. If the Dallas Cowboys are leading and running, then Dak Prescott won’t be throwing. I’m banking on the Cowboys taking it easy with their franchise quarterback, who’s returning after missing the past five weeks due to injury.

MORE: Steelers vs. Dolphins Sunday Night Football Prediction

The Cowboys are touchdown favorites over the Lions. If Dallas has positive game script, they should be running in the second half. That means more yards for Zeke and Pollard and fewer pass attempts for Prescott.

  • My line: 34.5 -125 on BetMGM
  • Current best line: 34.5 -120 on BetMGM
  • Lowest I’d go to: 33.5

T.J. Hockenson under 42.5 Receiving Yards -113 (FanDuel)

For years, T.J. Hockenson has been an overrated player. Whenever he has his smash games, it’s purely accidental — a product of there being no one else.

When the Lions have their pass-catchers healthy, Hockenson is firmly behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and D’Andre Swift. That’s the situation we likely have this week. Even with Swift out again, St. Brown being healthy is enough.

Hockenson caught eight passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4, and that was the game St. Brown missed. In every other game, he’s caught no more than four passes for 38 yards.

The Cowboys allow 33.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the seventh-lowest in the league. I would be surprised if he broke the mold this week.

  • My line: 42.5 -113 on FanDuel
  • Current best line: 42.5 -113 on FanDuel
  • Lowest I’d go: 40.5

Taylor Heinicke Over 0.5 Interceptions -125 (DraftKings)

As the former Football Team’s starting quarterback in 2021, Taylor Heinicke threw an interception in 12 out of 17 starts. That included a game against the Green Bay Packers.

Although the Packers have only recorded one interception this season, I think a highly motivated Packers defense gets to Heinicke and forces him into mistakes.

  • My line: 0.5 -125 on DraftKings
  • Current best line: 0.5 -115 on DraftKings
  • Highest price I’d pay: -130

Alec Pierce Over 43.5 Receiving Yards -110 (BetMGM)

Alec Pierce has been getting better every week. He played a season-high 71% of the team’s offensive snaps last week.

The Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver has gone over 43.5 receiving yards in four straight games. The Titans allow the second-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers, and they are 31st in DVOA against WR2s.

  • My line: 43.5 -110 on BetMGM
  • Current best line: 43.5 -115 on DraftKings
  • Highest I’d go: 45.5

Kenneth Walker III Over 67.5 Rushing Yards -115 (BetMGM)

One of two things is about to happen. Either this number is too high and I fell for the trap, or this ends up being the lowest we see Kenneth Walker’s rushing yards line for the rest of the season because he’s just that damn good. I’m banking on it being the latter.

Walker carried the ball 21 times for 97 yards last week against the Arizona Cardinals, and while the Seattle Seahawks may not have the luxury of positive game script this week, they shouldn’t get blown out to the point where they need to abandon the run.

The Los Angeles Chargers are allowing 5.6 yards per carry, and Walker is a splash play machine in his early career. He’s probably a good bet for at least 15 carries, but he could theoretically get there on even fewer. I’m banking on talent in this one.

  • My line: 67.5 -115 on BetMGM
  • Current best line: 68.5 -117 on BetRivers
  • Highest I’d go: 70.5

Kenneth Walker III Longest Rush Over 16.5 yards -115 (BetMGM)

I’m doubling down on Walker here. The kid has only carried the ball 44 times in his young NFL career. Yet, he’s already taken five of those for at least 17 yards. That’s an 11% rate. Based on the math, if he gets at least 11 carries, he’s likely to bust one for 17+ yards. I will take those odds.

  • My line: 16.5 -115 on BetMGM
  • Current best line: 16.5 -121 on BetRivers
  • Highest price I’d pay: -125

Travis Etienne Jr. Over 15.5 Receiving Yards -110 (BetMGM)

The Giants have been quite stingy against running backs in the passing game, but I think Travis Etienne Jr. can break through.

Etienne’s usage has been increasing over the past few weeks, particularly in the passing game. In six games, Etienne has totaled at least 18 receiving yards five times. His lone failure came in a Week 4 monsoon game against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense.

  • My line: 15.5 -110 on BetMGM
  • Current best line: 14.5 -120 on BetRivers
  • Highest price I’d pay: -125

Harrison Bryant Longest Reception Under 9.5 Yards -115 (Caesars)

We’re back again for another edition of Harrison Bryant not catching a 10+ yard pass. This line keeps dropping each week, but it’s not quite low enough to the point where I won’t bet it.

Bryant is running about 13-14 routes per game. He has just two receptions on the season of 10+ yards. Until this line drops to 8.5, I’m going to keep betting it.

  • My line: 9.5 -115 on Caesars
  • Current best line: 9.5 -115 on Ceasars
  • Highest price I’d pay: -125

Wan’Dale Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions +110 (PointsBet)

In Week 6, Wan’Dale Robinson made his long-awaited return from a knee injury. The Giants wisely eased their rookie slot man back into action, playing him on just 23% of the team’s offensive snaps. He only caught three of four targets for 37 yards. While that may seem minimal, it was actually quite encouraging.

Robinson only ran 10 routes but was targeted on four of them. I expect his playing time to only increase going forward.

The Giants are rolling out Marcus Johnson, David Sills, Darius Slayton, and Richie James Jr. at wide receiver. Robinson is better than all of them… by a lot. He could very well see 40-50% of the snaps this week. That’s all he would need to have a great shot at catching at least four passes.

I’m banking on head coach Brian Daboll manufacturing targets for his agile rookie receiver. I think we’re getting in on the ground floor here. In a couple of weeks, Robinson’s weekly receptions line may be consistently at 4.5.

  • My line: 3.5 +110 on PointsBet
  • Current best line: 3.5 +130 on DraftKings
  • Highest price I’d pay: -120

D’Onta Foreman Under 41.5 Rushing Yards -110 (BetMGM)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as always, showcase a pass-funnel defense. With the Bucs as nearly two-touchdown favorites, it’s difficult to envision the Carolina Panthers being content to just run the ball the entire game. That said, Carolina is in full tank mode, and they may not care.

Regardless, D’Onta Foreman likely needs at least 12 carries to have a shot at surpassing 41.5 rushing yards. The Bucs allow 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, but the Panthers should be even less effective, given their lack of offensive weapons.

I also feel like this line doesn’t account enough for the possibility that Chuba Hubbard is just as involved as Foreman. If these two split carries evenly, neither is likely to reach 40 rushing yards. I’m down with fading this offense entirely, especially in a game in which Carolina should trail wire to wire.

  • My line: 41.5 -110 on BetMGM
  • Current best line: 41.5 -114 on BetRivers
  • Lowest I’d go: 40.5

Breece Hall Over 15.5 Rush Attempts -115 (BetMGM)

Am I falling for a trap here? Breece Hall has carried the ball at least 17 times in three straight games. The New York Jets are small road favorites against the Denver Broncos, who are now starting Brett Rypien at quarterback.

I don’t anticipate game script getting away from the Jets in this one. They should be able to continue leaning on Hall.

  • My line: 15.5 -115 on BetMGM
  • Current best line: 15.5 -115 on BetMGM
  • Highest I’d go: 16.5 or 15.5 -125

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