10 Best NFL Prop Bets To Target in Week 10, Including Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Chase Claypool

    Heading into Week 10 of the NFL season, here are my top NFL prop bets for the Sunday slate of games, including action on Russell Wilson and Saquon Barkley.

    There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is it more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the Sunday slate of games.

    Top NFL Player Bets To Bet Today

    All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.

    It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: What line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.

    Last week’s plays (including the PFN Discord plays) went 10-6, winning 3.1 units. Currently, we are sitting at 90-69, +20 units on the season (which includes a Thursday night hit on Drake London under 39.5 receiving yards).

    We are hitting our stride as we cross into the second half of the season. The last two weeks have been consistently positive. Let’s keep the train rolling in Week 10.

    Russell Wilson Over 226.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)

    Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I’m expecting some improvement from the Broncos coming out of their bye.

    Russell Wilson has gone over this number in four out of seven starts. More specifically, when facing poor pass defenses, he’s actually thrown the ball decently well. Wilson threw for 340 yards against the Seahawks, 237 yards against the Raiders, and 252 yards against the Jaguars. He even got to 274 against the stout Colts’ pass defense.

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    The Titans allow 275 passing yards per game, the third-most in the league. What intrigues me the most, though, is the Titans’ struggles with the deep ball. No team allows a higher deep ball completion rate.

    Wilson’s completion percentages in all areas are outside the top 20… except the deep ball, where he’s 16th. He averages 9.7 air yards per attempt. The one thing Wilson can still do well is throw it deep. I’m expecting a pass-heavy game plan against a pass-funnel defense, allowing Wilson to sail over this number.

    • My line
      226.5 -115 (DraftKings)
    • Current line
      225.5 -114 (FanDuel)
    • Highest I’d go
      228.5

    Greg Dulcich Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)

    Piggybacking on the Wilson prop is Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards total. 22.8% of the receiving yards allowed by the Titans go to tight ends.

    Dulcich has gone over this number in all three of his games. I expect his role to only continue to increase.

    • My line
      40.5 -115 (DraftKings)
    • Current line
      43.5 -115 (DraftKings)
    • Highest I’d go
      43.5

    Saquon Barkley Over 93.5 Rushing Yards -115 (BetMGM)

    I think we can all agree that Saquon Barkley is very, very good at football. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry, his highest average since his rookie season. Barkley has three 100-yard rushing games on the season.

    While he has gone under this number more times than not, we’re playing the matchup here. The second-worst team at defending the run has been the Chargers, who allow 134.3 rushing yards per game to running backs. The Texans allow 20.1 more yards per game.

    Coming out of the bye and always looking to hide their quarterback, the Giants should let Barkley run all over the Texans in a game where New York projects to see positive game script. I think there’s a chance he gets there by halftime.

    • My line
      93.5 -115 (BetMGM)
    • Current line
      Same
    • Highest I’d go
      96.5

    Davis Mills Under 208.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)

    While I expect the Giants to lead and Davis Mills to face negative game script, I don’t really care when it comes to his passing yards total.

    Mills has thrown for 154 yards or fewer in three of his last four starts. Those games have included plenty of negative game script. The problem is that Mills just isn’t very good.

    On the other hand, the Giants are pretty good at defending the pass, allowing just 208.4 passing yards per game. That is right at this number. Mills is the worst quarterback they’ve faced this season, and I expect them to make that abundantly clear on Sunday.

    • My line
      208.5 -115 (DraftKings)
    • Current line
      207.5 -117 (BetRivers)
    • Lowest I’d go
      206.5

    Dalton Schultz Over 31.5 Receiving Yards -113 (Caesars)

    The Packers are actually excellent against tight ends. They surrender the lowest percentage of receiving yards to the position at 13.2%.

    This one isn’t about matchup — it’s about Dalton Schultz. He looks back to being Dak Prescott’s No. 2 target behind CeeDee Lamb. In all three of Prescott’s starts, Schultz has soared past this number, and I’m willing to gamble that he does it again.

    • My line
      31.5 -113 (Caesars)
    • Current line
      33.5 -114 (FanDuel)
    • Highest I’d go
      35.5

    Leonard Fournette Under 72.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)

    This has become a weekly automatic wager: Leonard Fournette’s combined yardage under. I give the sportsbooks credit for adjusting, as this line is six yards lower than it was last week. But they haven’t adjusted enough.

    Fournette hasn’t come close to 70 total yards in three straight games. His number of average touches per game continues to decline. Over the past three weeks, he’s averaging just 12 touches per game.

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    The Bucs’ offensive line cannot block. Fournette averages a paltry 1.4 yards per carry before contact, and he’s not exactly making defenders miss with a 10% evaded tackle rate. He’s also not busting off any big plays, with just 1.7% of his carries going for 15 yards or more.

    The only way I see Fournette going over this number is with volume, but Rachaad White continues to eat into Fournette’s usage. Until the line adjusts to a number that I feel is more representative of what Fournette should be expected to produce, I will take this under every week.

    • My line
      72.5 -115 (DraftKings)
    • Current line
      Same
    • Lowest I’d go
      70.5

    Jonathan Taylor Under 17.5 Receiving Yards -113 (Caesars)

    There are a couple of reasons I like Jonathan Taylor’s receiving yards under here. First, it’s his first game back from injury. I’m expecting the team to be cautious with him and pull him on clear passing downs.

    Second, Sam Ehlinger is an affront to quarterbacking at every level. Combine that with new interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s likelihood to #establishit, and we’re looking at limited passing volume.

    Third, Taylor saw exactly one target, which he didn’t catch, in his lone game played with Ehlinger. Even with Matt Ryan, Taylor only went over 17.5 receiving yards in two of five games.

    • My line
      17.5 -113 (Ceasars)
    • Current line
      17.5 -114 (Caesars)
    • Lowest I’d go
      16.5

    Sam Ehlinger Under 28.5 Pass Attempts -110 (DraftKings) | 2 Units

    See above regarding my thoughts on Ehlinger and Saturday. I’ve made my position clear on how I see this game playing out. I think we see a run rate of over 55%. If that happens, Ehlinger is likely to attempt 25 or fewer passes.

    I’m making this a two-unit play because I really think there’s a better than 50% chance Ehlinger gets benched at halftime. Matt Ryan will be active as his backup. Saturday has every incentive to play the players that give his team the best chance at winning. If Ehlinger has something like five total completions at the half for 50 yards, it’s easy to imagine him getting pulled for the veteran, which would lock this up without a sweat.

    • My line
      28.5 -110 (DraftKings)
    • Current line
      28.5 -108 (FanDuel)
    • Lowest I’d go
      28.5

    Michael Pittman Jr. Longest Reception Under 20.5 Yards -120 (BetMGM)

    This is another bet that’s become a weekly occurrence. The Raiders may be a soft pass defense, but I don’t really care. This is about Ehlinger, the Colts’ passing game, and Michael Pittman Jr.’s usage.

    Pittman has just three receptions all season of over 20 yards. His 6.1 average depth of target is outside the top 80. Even if Ryan takes over at halftime and targets Pittman relentlessly, this still has a great shot at hitting, as Pittman’s targets are so shallow.

    Here’s a completely irrelevant trend: this is the fifth time I’ve recommended a Pittman prop this season. We are currently 4-0.

    • My line
      20.5 -120 (BetMGM)
    • Current line
      Same
    • Lowest I’d go
      20.5

    Chase Claypool Over 2.5 Receptions -138 (FanDuel)

    Last week was Chase Claypool’s first game with the Bears. He only played 35% of the snaps and ran just 15 routes. Yet, he still saw six targets, catching two of them. I don’t love laying the heavy juice on the over, but this number is just so easy for Claypool to hit.

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    Justin Fields is playing much better. Although this remains a run-heavy offense, Claypool being targeted on 40% of his routes run is extremely encouraging. His playing time is only going to increase this week as he grows more and more acclimated to the Bears’ offense. We only need three catches against a Lions defense allowing 13.6 receptions per game to wide receivers.

    • My line
      2.5 -138 (FanDuel)
    • Current line
      Same
    • Highest price I’d pay
      -140

    Bonus Anytime Touchdown Props

    I don’t consider touchdown props as part of my official record, but I do track the ones I bet, and they’re 9-9, +8.55 units on the season. I figure: why not let the fine people know what I’m sprinkling in for anytime touchdowns?

    • Courtland Sutton +250 (FanDuel)
    • Jamaal Williams +115 (Caesars)
    • Josh Jacobs +100 (DraftKings)

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