1 Bold Fantasy Prediction for the Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence a Massive Bust

There are two ways to play fantasy football. You can play it safe, or you can swing for the fences. It’s always risky to chase outliers, but outliers are how we separate from our competitors.

With that in mind, we’re going through bold fantasy takes for every NFL team, with this installment looking at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence Finishes Outside Top 24 QBs

Ever since he was dubbed the best prospect since Andrew Luck (which was never true), I’ve been pushing back on Trevor Lawrence as anything other than a good prospect/mediocre NFL quarterback.

Lawrence was trending in the wrong direction after one of the worst rookie seasons by a first-round QB in NFL history. He appeared to make considerable strides over the second half of his sophomore season, but unfortunately, those didn’t carry into 2023.

Last season, Lawrence averaged 17.3 fantasy ppg, finishing as the overall QB13. It would take a massive decline for him to fall outside the top 24, right?

Well, not exactly. We already know exactly what it might look like.

From Weeks 1-10 last season, Lawrence averaged 14.3 ppg. If not for a really strong four-game stretch from Weeks 11-14, he would’ve finished as the QB25. Is it that crazy to think he can have a repeat of last year but without the four weeks of elite QB1 numbers?

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Profile

On the surface, 4,016 yards and 21 scores through the air with another 339 yards and four scores on the ground doesn’t feel like a catastrophic fantasy season for a quarterback. Yet, when I tell you that Lawrence threw for fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, and more interceptions last year than he did in 2022… why Lawrence’s 2023 campaign felt like such a disappointment to fantasy managers becomes clearer.

Lawrence was serviceable as a fantasy option with a QB13 overall finish in 2023, but he never felt like the elite option many were hoping for heading into last year. He produced just two 300-yard passing performances and three passing-touchdown tallies last season.

For a player many spent fifth-round draft capital on last year, this likely led to many of those fantasy managers who invested in Lawrence missing the playoffs, unless they were lucky enough to find a better fantasy option on the waiver wire.

To give you an idea of how rough it was for fantasy managers who kept blindly rolling Lawrence into their starting lineup last year, he was the QB19 in fantasy football — trailing Geno Smith — through the first 10 weeks of the NFL season.

These struggles were compounded by Lawrence failing to take care of the football last year, throwing 14 interceptions, and fumbling the ball 12 times in 16 games.

Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Trevor Lawrence right here.