Making bold predictions ahead of any season can be useful in giving a concept of a player’s ceiling. Once you know what you feel a player’s ultimate upside is, then you can scale back to find a more realistic above-expectation performance.
If you start really bold, it allows you to scale back and still be somewhat bold in your outlook. That bold prediction is unlikely to hit, but it’s at least plausible, which is important. Get close with a couple of bold predictions in a season, and you put yourself in with a great chance of winning your fantasy football league. Here are my bold predictions for all 16 AFC teams.
What Are Our Bold Predictions for All 16 AFC Teams?
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry Reminds Everyone He’s Not Done Just Yet and Scores 20+ Touchdowns
Derrick Henry is 30 years old. After playing exclusively for the Tennessee Titans, he’s now on a new team for the first time in his career.
Henry is playing alongside one of the best rushing quarterbacks in NFL history, who will inevitably steal some touchdowns. Most notably, Henry has never scored 20 times in a single season in his career.
Sportsbooks have Henry’s rushing total set at 10.5, so he has to seriously outperform expectations to essentially double his projection. How does he get there?
The Ravens possess, by far, the best offense Henry has ever been a part of. He operates best in positive game scripts, and Baltimore wants to run the ball near the goal line. Still, they don’t want to overexpose Lamar Jackson to hits.
Henry might just have one more epic season in him, leaving us kneeling before him in January, proclaiming, “All hail his grace, the King.”
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen Finishes as Overall QB1, But None of His WRs Finish Inside Top 36
Since the moment Stefon Diggs was traded, fantasy managers have been speculating over which Bills wide receiver will benefit the most. Who is going to step up as Josh Allen’s preferred option? But what if the answer is no one?
The three candidates are Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman. Samuel is a veteran who has never finished higher than a mid-WR2. At this point, we know who he is, and a breakout is extremely unlikely.
Shakir made some nice splash plays last season but was a fifth-round pick in 2022 and totaled just 161 receiving yards. Last season, he commanded a whopping 8.9% target share. It’s not going to be Shakir.
The most likely candidate is the rookie, simply because he’s an unknown. Unfortunately, Coleman is considered a contested-catch specialist. That archetype rarely pans out without improvement elsewhere in the profile. Coleman averaged fewer than 2.0 yards per route run in college, which is a major red flag regarding NFL success.
What if the Bills use a WR by committee, Allen still throws for over 4,000 yards, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s run-heavy approach continues to feature designed runs for Buffalo’s QB, including around the goal line?
Despite not having a top target, Allen maintains his fantasy value, while none of his wide receivers are worth starting in fantasy.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tee Higgins Finishes as a WR1
It would be a pretty massive return on investment if Tee Higgins were able to crack the top 12 at his position. Fantasy managers would sign up for that right now from any WR drafted where Higgins is going at WR26.
Three years ago, Higgins averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR12. His performance declined each of the next two seasons, but it’s easy to explain it away.
In 2022, Higgins had three games where he left early due to injury, resulting in two zero outputs and the other at 4.7. Take those games away, and he averaged 17.8 ppg — WR1 numbers.
In 2023, Higgins was a disaster, averaging 11.5 ppg. But once again, we can explain it away.
He had a complete anomalous goose egg in Week 1. Higgins again left two games early due to injury, scoring just 4.1 and 3.9 points in those contests. Most importantly, Joe Burrow was only healthy for a couple of games.
Higgins is still a talented player and, playing for a new contract, is heavily motivated. Burrow is back healthy, and this is a very consolidated passing attack, with Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins set to command over 50% of the targets.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson Gets Benched for Jameis Winston
Just one short year ago, fantasy managers were excited about the prospect of Deshaun Watson having a normal offseason and being able to return to being the elite QB1 he was in Houston.
At 29 years old, Watson should still have a few high-quality years left, but he hasn’t exactly had a conventional career. He missed all of 2021 and more than half of the 2022 season. Watson returned to start six games and looked awful, which is to be expected.
A year later, injuries limited him to six games once again. When healthy, though, he still looked awful.
Watson completed just 61.4% of his passes in 2023. His 6.5 yards per attempt in each of the last two seasons were well below his career average up until that point. He only averaged 15.1 fantasy ppg.
Cleveland gave Watson a mega contract, which will afford him an extended leash. However, the Browns also have a roster capable of making a playoff run. We saw it last season when they reached the playoffs with Joe Flacco under center.
If Watson plays like he did last year, he’s not making it the full season as the starter — which is exactly what I think will happen.
Denver Broncos: No Player From This Team Is a Fantasy Starter
To be honest, I’m not sure how bold this is. The earliest drafted Broncos weapon is currently Javonte Williams at around No. 95 overall.
It’s not that difficult to envision this backfield devolving into a nightmare three-headed committee with Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estimé.
Denver’s starting quarterback, Bo Nix, is a rookie, and unlikely to crack the top 12 at his position. Courtland Sutton, meanwhile, is the WR1 on this team but is being taken as the WR47.
No other player is even being drafted in standard-sized leagues. There’s a very real chance the Broncos are the worst offense for fantasy football, providing managers with no useful players.
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud Throws for 5,000 Yards and 40 Touchdowns
C.J. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons a quarterback has ever had. He’s already a top-five quarterback in the NFL, yet nowhere near as good as he will be at his peak.
This season, the Texans’ front office equipped Stroud with two new weapons in Diggs and Joe Mixon. What if Houston decides to let him rip it every week?
Imagine Stroud on a team with a 60% neutral-game-script pass rate. Defenses aren’t going to be able to cover Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Diggs. Mixon is also a solid threat out of the backfield.
It’s certainly possible that the second-year passer will reach his final form early and have a career year in 2024.
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson Goes Full 2019 Lamar Jackson
The title says it all. In 2019, Jackson ran for 1,213 yards, threw 36 touchdowns, and averaged 28.2 fantasy points per game. It was the best season by a fantasy quarterback ever. But if there’s anyone in the NFL now with a chance to match it, it’s Anthony Richardson.
Although he played only four games as a rookie, Richardson showcased his dual-threat ability. He averaged 34 rushing yards per game and left two games early.
There’s certainly a world where Richardson can average over 60 rushing yards per game. If he progresses even a little bit as a passer, a historic season is possible in what should be a high-octane Colts offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence Solidifies Bust Status and Finishes Outside Top 24 QBs
Ever since he was dubbed the best prospect since Andrew Luck (which was never true), I’ve been pushing back on Trevor Lawrence as anything other than a good prospect/mediocre NFL quarterback.
Lawrence was trending in the wrong direction after one of the worst rookie seasons by a first-round QB in NFL history. He appeared to make considerable strides over the second half of his sophomore season, but unfortunately, those didn’t carry into 2023.
Last season, Lawrence averaged 17.3 fantasy ppg, finishing as the overall QB13. It would take a massive decline for him to fall outside the top 24, right?
Well, not exactly. We already know exactly what it might look like.
From Weeks 1-10 last season, Lawrence averaged 14.3 ppg. If not for a really strong four-game stretch from Weeks 11-14, he would’ve finished as the QB25. Is it that crazy to think he can have a repeat of last year but without the four weeks of elite QB1 numbers?
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes Reminds Everyone Why He’s the Greatest QB in NFL History, Throwing for Over 5,000 Yards, 40 Touchdowns, and Supporting 3 Top-24 Fantasy WRs
This is a hefty bold prediction. Coming off the worst season of his career (one in which he still won the Super Bowl), Patrick Mahomes enters the 2024 season as a man on a mission.
NFL defenses have made it a point to take away the deep ball, which contributed to Mahomes’ career-low 7.0 yards per attempt last season. He threw for just 4,184 yards, 27 touchdowns, and averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game — by far the worst of his career.
Even though the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, their offense wasn’t up to standards. They signed Hollywood Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round. Both of those players — along with Rashee Rice — are being drafted as fantasy WR3s. If Mahomes has the year I think he will have, everyone will eat.
Get yourself pieces of Kansas City’s offense, as there’s a very real chance every player on this team outperforms his ADP.
Las Vegas Raiders: Davante Adams Finishes Outside Top 24 WRs for the First Time Since 2015
In 2020, Davante Adams had the best season of his career, averaging 25.6 fantasy points per game. Since then, it’s been a slow decline in his productivity.
Adams averaged 21.5 ppg in 2021, which was still incredible. In 2022, he dipped below 20, averaging 19.7 ppg after his peripheral numbers fell, but a career-high 14 touchdowns bailed him out.
Last year, things started to trend downward. Adams averaged just 15.6 ppg, his lowest since 2016. Most notably, his yards per route run dipped to 1.98.
Poor QB play had a lot to do with it, but Adams also didn’t get open or perform at the same level as he did during his prime.
He’s declining, there’s no disputing that. Of course, Adams’ decline could be gradual, which would allow him to maintain competitive numbers for another year or two.
But what if it isn’t? What if 2023 was the last hurrah for the future Hall of Famer, and Adams is about to completely fall off in 2024?
Los Angeles Chargers: J.K. Dobbins Is Finally Healthy and Finishes as a Fantasy RB2
Once upon a time, J.K. Dobbins was headed toward being a fantasy RB1. As a rookie, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry and looked to be the Ravens’ RB of the future.
After tearing his ACL in the 2021 preseason, Dobbins returned in 2022. Despite needing another surgery to clean up his knee, he was able to average 5.7 yards per carry.
When healthy, Dobbins is as talented as anyone. Of course, this is now a player who not only tore his ACL but also tore his Achilles. There’s a very distinct possibility that he can’t play football at a high level anymore.
However, a healthy, explosive Dobbins is a perfect fit for Greg Roman’s run-heavy offense. We know this because he played in it in 2020.
Gus Edwards is 29 years old, also injured frequently, and isn’t exactly the most dynamic player. At his RB42 ADP, Dobbins would be one of the steals of the draft if he manages a top-24 season in 2024.
Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle Outscores Tyreek Hill
Do I think this happens? Of course not. But these are bold predictions, baby! There’s certainly a path.
Tyreek Hill is 30 years old and coming off the best season of his career — but also his highest volume. Hill’s 33.7% target share was No. 1 in the league and a career high. The usage was somewhat of a problem, though, as he broke down over the final weeks of the season due to an ankle injury.
What if Hill struggles to stay healthy again? He could tweak an ankle or pull a hamstring.
While he hasn’t shown any signs of decline, his skill set doesn’t tend to age particularly well. His straight-line speed won’t go away, but the quick twitch movements that make Hill so lethal will dissipate sooner rather than later.
New England Patriots: Ja’Lynn Polk Emerges as Team’s WR1 and Posts High-WR2 Numbers Over Second Half
This was the most difficult team to find a bold prediction for. There just isn’t anyone on this roster I’m excited about for fantasy purposes. But if one player could break through and be a value, it’s rookie second-rounder Ja’Lynn Polk.
The Patriots have one of the most climbable WR depth charts in the NFL. They’ll likely deploy fifth-round sophomore DeMario Douglas and journeyman Kendrick Bourne (once fully healthy) as their top two receivers.
That leaves the door open for someone to step up and establish himself as this team’s true alpha. If anyone is going to do that, it’s Polk.
The rookie was incredibly productive in his final season at Washington, catching 69 balls for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns. With a WR67 ADP, he’s essentially free. Polk just might end up winning fantasy managers championships over the second half of the season.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers Is Done, Resulting in Yet Another Failure-To-Launch Season for Garrett Wilson
I have zero doubts about Garrett Wilson’s talent. He’s as good as everyone thinks but can’t overcome poor QB play (very few can).
For the past two seasons, Wilson has been unable to realize his potential with Zach Wilson under center. This year, he’s finally poised to get a healthy Aaron Rodgers…or is he?
Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. When we last saw him play, he was pretty mediocre throwing to a similar group of receivers that Jordan Love was able to thrive with last season in Green Bay.
What if it’s over for Rodgers?
The Jets are better insulated than they were last year now that they have Tyrod Taylor as the backup quarterback. However, Taylor isn’t about to propel Wilson to the WR1 season his ADP suggests he’ll have.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Fields Starts 10+ Games and Averages Elite QB1 Numbers
I don’t buy the reports that the Steelers’ starting QB competition is a fait accompli. Russell Wilson is going to start Week 1; he’s just not going to finish the season.
At some point, Wilson will get benched for Justin Fields. Fields isn’t exactly a great NFL quarterback, but he brings a different element of explosiveness that Wilson cannot offer.
Once Fields takes over, we know what he can do. Run, and run a lot. Fields averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 18.4 ppg last season.
Since Week 7 of the 2022 season, Fields has recorded 13 games of 20+ fantasy points, including two games of 40+ and another over 30. Just get Fields in there, and he’ll be an every-week QB1 in fantasy.
Tennessee Titans: DeAndre Hopkins Posts a WR2 Season
Admittedly, I was feeling better about this bold prediction before news broke about DeAndre Hopkins’ knee sprain. We never want to see players enter the season with an injury, and it’s even worse when the player is 32 years old. Nevertheless, I’m sticking with it.
Hopkins has been going outside the top 36 wide receivers all summer. Until this injury, I held steadfast in my ranking of him ahead of Calvin Ridley. If healthy, I believe Hopkins to be the better player and the receiver more likely to be Will Levis’ top target.
The Titans are about to experience an offensive philosophy shift unlike any we have seen in a long time. They’re going from a run-heavy team centered around Henry to a pass-happy unit banking on Levis.
Even if Levis isn’t good, based on volume alone, Hopkins still looks like he has enough juice to turn back the clock one more time.